An Open Letter To President Tinubu On Avoiding Gen-Z’s Protests

My President,

On July 10, 2024, I gave a Keynote Address to the students of the Political Science Department at Chrisland University in Abeokuta. My Keynote Address, titled “Developments in Kenya: Lessons for Nigeria,” focused on a critical issue: the remarkable achievements of Kenya’s Gen-Zs.  These young people are actively stepping up and demonstrating that they are the leaders of today, ready to move their parents aside.

This address had since been published in its entirety by Premium Times, which could be a useful read that your Assistants/Advisers could summarise into a few paragraphs. I not only told stories about Kenya but also drew some lessons for Nigeria.

The problem in Kenya started with the 2024 Finance Bill that had been submitted to the Kenyan parliament by President William Ruto’s government in May 2024. On June 18, 2024, thousands of young Kenyans took to the streets to oppose the proposed tax reforms in the Bill, marking a significant shift in the landscape of youth activism and advocacy in Africa.

Previously perceived as apathetic and confined to social media, the generation born between 1995 and 2010 is changing. African youths, despite being the largest in the world, have historically shown low voter turnout. However, they are now ready to yank the feet of oppressive governance off their necks as they are now driven by a new fear: the bleakness of their future. They are determined to remove oppressive governance and no longer feel held down by the old order. It is this fear that makes them prepared for death and conclude in pidgin that “All Die Na Die”

The face of advocacy may have changed for good, at least in Kenya. Unlike traditional demonstrations of the past marred by violence and chaos, the new-age protest embodies a peaceful and organized approach. The protest also showcased a decentralised structure, devoid of traditional hierarchical leadership a political figure on the frontline of mobilisation. This seeming leader-less approach which we all had a feel of during the 2020 #EndSARS Protest may deviate from the conventional protest, whose anatomy you must be very well conversant with, as a frontline participant of a number of many historical protestations.

On 26, June 2004, President Ruto withdrew the Finance Bill, 2024. But this development, rather than douse tension saw the crowd of youth shift focus to cries of “Ruto Must Go”. By this time, an estimated 41 (the number keeps growing), youths had been killed with a number kidnapped allegedly by the police, but the high-handedness did not stop the surging crowds.

On Friday, July 5, 2024, in a State-House Statement, President Ruto proposed spending cuts, reduced the level of additional borrowing as he rolled out austerity measures as well as abrogated planned tax hikes. Among others, he agreed to expenditures to benefit ordinary Kenyans like farmers and provide additional funding for the higher education. He dissolved 47 state corporations just gulping funds with little value-added, cut advisory posts in half and suspended non-essential travel by public officials.

Curbing the personalized looting of government resources by unelected wives, Ruto reduced allocations not only to his office, but removed budget lines for his wife a.k.a, First Lady, as well as for Second and Third Ladies. He fired most of the members of his cabinet, though he rehired about half of the fired ones. He took to X platform for a town-hall and has continued to show remorse, including on July 24, 2024 when he gave the strongest indications that he would fight corruption in Kenya. I doubt if Ruto, like your good self, can sincerely fight corruption, I wish him success. Lack of accountability is a bane of governance in Africa.

It is widespread in the media that some Nigerians have indicated a desire to demonstrate against your leadership and management of Nigeria in August. They are pointing to the economic hardships we have all been facing since your announcement of a phantom oil subsidy removal as well as merging the exchange rates. Those calling for protests are pointing to your government’s do as I say but not as I do style. While you preach tightening of our belts, patience as we make sacrifices, the profligacy in Nigeria’s governance has continued even with heightened rascality under your watch. In my assessment from an academic survey of 1,500+ Nigerians, corruption has also flourished as your body language is suggesting that corruption is alright.

The media has been awash with ethnicised efforts to stop any protests against your administration. I do not expect that you will roll over and allow protesters to take charge. Some organisations like those of students and labour that recently settled for 70,000 naira as minimum wage without deep thoughts on productivity have backed out of any protests.

–Babafemi A. Badejo, author of a best-seller on politics in Kenya, was a former Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Somalia, and currently a Legal Practitioner and Professor of Political Science & International Relations, Chrisland University, Abeokuta. Nigeria.

In a subterfuge, the National Assembly, has offered to slash their monthly salaries by half for six months. But they knew this offer was merely to play on our intelligence. It would have addressed a portion of profligacy and outright thefts if they had decided to half their overall budget, in which case there would be reduction in all sorts of allowances, including constituency projects that the ICPC, under Prof. Bolaji Owasanoye had documented as avenue for looting from national patrimony.

A number of my friends spend time reminding that you inherited a very bad economy. I do not want to waste time with a retort in reaction to this argument by suggesting you are a national leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC). The fact was clear. President Buhari marginalised you and actually did all he could to prevent you from becoming the current president of Nigeria. You were well prepared and matched him in the spirit of Arthur Nzeribe’s “oporoko for oporoko”.

If you stopped President Buhari dead in his tracks, my question is why you wanted the office so badly and appear to be floundering after 14 months. You saw the Nigerian problem and decided you were the best to solve it. We have come to learn though that all the claim of having experts to turn our lots around has, so far, not worked. It is clear to all that running a complex Nigeria is not like running the politics of Lagos. I understand from some of my friends, however, that Yemi Cardoso is trying to pull his weight even though he upsets me whenever he boldly says he is stabilising the naira. How can he say that: you collapsed 450 and 750 naira to the dollar to escalate to 1,980 which receded to about 1,500 naira to the dollar and you expect us to look for popular Lagbaja, Burna Boy or Kiz Daniel to sing for us to dance?

Of course, you changed our national anthem back into 1959 and some say it is progress.  I had said my own on that.

You have received the Supreme Court’s interpretation of our Constitution to the effect that rapacious Governors will no longer control local government funds. The jury is out on the three levels of government for our federation arrangement that my late mentor, Oyeleye Oyediran, had struggled for. He had seen this as the answer to our thieving Governors. Definitively, we are not bound to follow any other federation in spite of the argument of the Afenifere and others that the decision undermines the states. My major worry, is that if you do not put structures in place, we may have decentralised the stealing of federal allocations. It is well documented that most local government Chairmen looted the sums they collected. Some of them went to jail for that.

My President, I do have some recommendations for your consideration:

We have 10 planes in the presidential fleet to ferry you, your family, the Vice-President, and his family around. Many of the countries we are owing do not have a single plane for their servant-leaders. They charter planes on as needed basis from national and/or private providers. You have your own private jet(s). I wonder why you had to reportedly borrow from Chagoury to attend Cyril Ramaphosa’s inauguration. Talking about Chagoury, I do not want to dabble into the opaque nature of the award of the much-needed Lagos-Calabar Coastal road to HITECH since it is before a court of law. However, that deal smells.

Your travels that have followed the Buhari pattern in disappearing without any information as expected about our President should stop. When General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB) disappeared as military President into France for surgery to address his radiculopathy in the 1980s, many Nigerians condemned this and argued that IBB could have imported all the needs for a sophisticated hospital, at the time. I am almost sure that your activist self of those days probably joined in condemning IBB, the self-styled President, at that time. I do not feel comfortable about discussing our national interests and those of France in an open letter. A private person can go to where he wants. You, as our President, should not. There are many implications far beyond parking and maintenance costs for our planes.

Mr. President, I would like to believe that you stumbled on Femi Falana, S.A.N’s compendium on low hanging fruits you can handle for the boosting of our foreign reserves which will in effect improve our forex rates. To do this is to bring down costs for Nigerians. Our Attorney-General of the Federation knows you can issue Executive Orders. Please don’t wait for protests and several deaths before acting. By so doing, you will reduce the quantum of our local and international indebtedness and thereby free money for infrastructural developments, including improved energy availability.

Your body language on corruption should speedily change if you want to ensure there are no Gen-Z led protests. Public, private and social sector corruptions are continuing strongly under your watch. Some of the allegations include:

Lawmakers have been accused of pocketing large sums as palliatives, with Senator Ningi alleging that the Senate passed two padded Appropriation Bills for 2024, inflating the budget by N3.7 trillion. Reports also indicate that luxury SUVs for lawmakers will cost taxpayers N57.6 billion, with each lawmaker receiving a Toyota Prado SUV worth N130 million to N160 million. Additionally, Senate President Godswill Akpabio reportedly ordered four specialized Lexus SUVs valued at N1 billion, as reported by Punch News on October 30, 2023. Furthermore, allegations of corruption in the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management, and Social Development, and large sums allocated for pilgrimages, also highlight the issue.

The EFCC leader you appointed is saying the right things. However, he should stop talking and just “Do It”. Investigations are becoming a ruse to obfuscate. The Jim Obazee report need to be out of the coolers for all to read and clear many being insinuated as having been involved in ruining our economy.

Key Recommendations

Learning from the experience of Ruto, you could choose to start putting in place solutions to avoid damages. It would only demand from you the pain of denying your political class and cronies the chances of continued corruption. You could become the people’s hero by dealing differently with members of the elites, yourself inclusive. These recommendations in summary are simply saying focus on serving the interests of the vast Nigerian people, the people whose mandate you are riding on. If you do these very well, there wouldn’t be the talk of protests.

1. Inclusive Governance: Engage stakeholders early in the policy-making process to ensure transparency and public acceptance of reforms.
2. Economic Prudence and real cut down of the cost of governance: Conduct thorough impact assessments to balance revenue generation with socio-economic equity and avoid burdening vulnerable populations.
3. Combat Corruption: Implement stringent measures to tackle corruption within public, private and social institutions and ensure accountability of political leaders.
4. Civic Engagement: Foster a culture of civic activism to hold governments accountable and drive policy changes.
5. Youth Empowerment: Address systemic issues such as youth unemployment and economic inequality to rebuild public trust and promote sustainable development.
6. Effective management of Communication and public engagement: Possibly do a Heart-to-Heart off the scripts, less political talk with your people. Come down from that high horse and defy the barriers the sycophants around you have built to cut you off from the realities as they continue to sing your praise. Some of your spokesperson may be doing more harm than good. You need to call them to order. They need to do better in bridling their tongues. The Nigerians of today are far too intelligent than the people in your government think. We can do without the lies one of them tend to feed us with.

My President, as you probably know, I am an academic political economist without time for the Nigerian politicians of all ilk. I am not a group protester and definitely a non-violent Nigerian. Nonetheless, I spend time ruminating, analysing and articulating on how I see our polity and undertake comparative analysis over time and space to assist policy and decision-makers on their task. It is from my experience that I conclude that you are not able to address leadership deficit in Nigeria. I also think you are no match for the external dynamics Nigeria has been subjected to since flag independence.

I am, however, convinced you can take some baby steps by prioritising transparency, accountability, and stakeholder engagement to navigate complex economic landscapes and foster inclusive growth. By learning from Kenya’s experience, you can steer Nigerian policymakers to chart a path towards a resilient economy and an equitable society. In this regard, your campaign slogan of “renewed hope” can genuinely lead Nigerians towards utmost freedom – the summation of the rights granted under the Universal Declaration on Human Rights and the Sustainable Development Goals. To uphold renewed hope for utmost freedom is to make those wanting to protest irrelevant today, tomorrow, or at anytime during and beyond your term(s) in office. My President change history and be a peoples’ president for all Nigerians.