ANALYSIS: Deciphering Türkiye’s Africa policy

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Türkiye may not be quite ‘a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma’ as Winston Churchill described the Soviet Union in 1939 after its incongruous pact with Nazi Germany. But its foreign policy can sometimes be enigmatic.

Last week, Türkiye was reportedly invited to become a BRICS member. How, many asked, does a North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) member join an association dominated by NATO’s only two identified foes, Russia and China?

In Africa, Mr Erdoğan also surprised friend and foe alike in 2019 when Türkiye intervened in Libya’s civil war to stop Khalifa Haftar from capturing Tripoli. Recently he has been trying to reconcile two of his closest African allies, Somalia and Ethiopia, who have fallen out over Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s independence in exchange for access to the sea.

That mediation dilemma dates back to 2011. When countries were deserting Somalia because al-Shabaab’s terrorism made it too dangerous, Mr Erdoğan visited the country to show support. He returned in 2016 to open an embassy. Conversely, he endeared himself to Ethiopia by supplying it with drones in 2021, which helped prevent rebel Tigrayan forces from capturing Addis Ababa.

So in a sense that makes Türkiye a neutral broker – but the country is also perceived to be closer to Somalia, especially after it signed a new defence pact with Mogadishu in February. Erdogan is the master of surprise, of seizing opportunities.

On the surface, his Africa policy looks quite orthodox. As a G20 member, Türkiye evidently feels it necessary to engage the continent as many other G20 powers have – for instance to bolster support in the United Nations. This weekend, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will chair a Türkiye-Africa Ministerial Review Conference meeting with counterparts from 14 African countries ahead of the fourth Türkiye-Africa summit in 2026.

This is part of a major outreach to Africa, which Mr Erdoğan greatly boosted. Writing in 2023, former Turkish ambassador Numan Hazar noted that since 1998, the number of embassies on the continent has mushroomed from 12 to 44, while African embassies in Ankara have increased from 10 in 2008 to 38 today. Since becoming prime minister in 2003 and president in 2014, Mr Erdoğan has visited 31 African countries.

Total trade with Africa increased from $5.4 billion in 2003 to $40.7 billion in 2022. Türkiye’s overall investment stock in Africa, focusing on infrastructure, education and healthcare, totals $6 billion. Turkish contractors have built 1,296 projects worth $82.6 billion.

Mr Hazar points out that the late former South African ambassador to Ankara, Tom Wheeler, said Türkiye used its soft power to expand its influence in Africa, yet didn’t attract the negative reactions other countries faced. This could partly be because Türkiye didn’t carry any colonial baggage. This lack of any threat perception would be remarkable, considering that Türkiye has considerably expanded its military presence in Africa.

As Ali Bilgic, Professor of International Relations and Middle East Politics at Britain’s Loughborough University, told ISS Today, “Turkey has made notable strides in realising its ambition to become a key economic, humanitarian and military power in sub-Saharan Africa. Establishing military bases, such as the one in Somalia, and training local forces have solidified its geopolitical presence.”

He notes that as Islamist terrorists have increasingly targeted West African states such as Niger, Togo, Burkina Faso and Mali, Türkiye has been selling these countries drones.

‘Turkey’s defence industry has grown significantly, with numerous contracts signed across Africa. For instance, Turkey has supplied Bayraktar TB2 drones to Ethiopia and Libya … Additionally, Turkey has agreements to provide military training and equipment to nations such as Somalia, further cementing its influence in the region.’

Mr Bilgic sees Ankara’s efforts to mediate the standoff between Ethiopia and Somalia as a “diplomatic balancing act motivated by Ankara’s strategic interest in maintaining stability in the Horn of Africa.”

However, the balancing act is becoming difficult as Ethiopia has expressed concerns about Türkiye’s deepening relationship with Somalia, particularly its military support, “which it perceives as a potential threat to its own security.” This has postponed Ankara’s mediation efforts.

Mr Bilgic says Türkiye’s more assertive foreign policy has also strained relations with NATO allies and the European Union.

He doesn’t find Türkiye’s potential inclusion in BRICS incongruous, despite its NATO membership. This instead “reflects Erdoğan’s multifaceted foreign policy approach. This move is not seen as an alternative to NATO or the West but as part of a realist policy where Ankara seeks to engage with all parties. This approach means Turkey does not have eternal friends or enemies, only partners.”

Mr Erdoğan’s ambiguous approach is also evident in how he governs his own country. It’s ostensibly a democracy that holds regular elections. But Freedom House assesses Türkiye to be ‘Not Free’ – saying Mr Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party had become “increasingly authoritarian in recent years, consolidating significant power through constitutional changes and by imprisoning opponents and critics.”

The recent death in exile of Fethullah Gülen, spiritual leader of the moderate Islamic Gülen or Hizmet movement, raises another aspect of the ambiguities of Mr Erdoğan’s Türkiye. He and Mr Gülen were once allies but fell out in 2011 when Mr Erdoğan accused the Gülenists of trying to overthrow the government. The Erdoğan government also accused them of instigating the abortive 2016 coup – and branded them a terrorist organisation.

Africa has also become a terrain of Mr Erdoğan’s struggle against Hizmet, as the movement runs schools in South Africa, Mozambique, Malawi, Tanzania, Uganda, Central African Republic, Nigeria, Ghana and Egypt, say Hizmet sources. Türkiye has pressured African countries to close Hizmet schools or detain its members, they say, and several have done so.

This pressure has provoked tensions with some governments, including South Africa. Hizmet believes one of the motives for Mr Erdoğan’s outreach to Africa, including aid and investment, has been to acquire the leverage to pressure countries to stifle Hizmet.

Mr Erdoğan has also been able to counter his regional Middle East rivals on African soil, like Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which backed Mr Hafter in Libya. And his increasing military support for Somalia helps block the UAE, which backs Somaliland.

Mr Erdoğan’s ostensible reasons for expanding Türkiye’s African footprint are no doubt genuine – trade, investment, humanitarian aid and national and regional stability. But it seems Africa is also a stage for him to pursue his ambition for Türkiye to be a global player.

Peter Fabricius, Consultant, Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Pretoria

(This article was first published by ISS Today, a Premium Times syndication partner. We have their permission to republish).