ANALYSIS: Factors that helped Monday Okpebholo win 2024 Edo election

Before the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared the winner of the 2024 Edo governorship election, a video clip that circulated on social media showing police officers asking Governor Godwin Obaseki to leave the INEC collation centre in Benin was enough to indicate that all was not well with the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) regarding the election.

And so it was in the end – on 22 September, INEC declared Monday Okpebholo of the All Progressives Congress (APC) the election winner.

The INEC declaration elicited several reactions, mainly from the Labour Party (LP) and the PDP, which alleged manipulation of results, among other things.

According to the results, Mr Okpebholo, a senator and lawyer, defeated 17 other candidates in the poll. He polled 291,667 votes to defeat his closest challenger, the PDP candidate Asue Ighodalo, who scored 247,274. The LP candidate Olumide Akpata came a distant third with 22,763 votes.

Labour party’s candidate at the Edo State governorship election, Olumide Akpata

The election was considered a three-horse race between Okpebholo, and Akpata.

Meanwhile, the PDP and the LP have rejected the election outcome. The PDP leaders have indicated that the party would challenge the result in court.

Asuerinme Ighodalo

How the election was won and lost

Although Mr Okpebholo was among the three leading candidates in the election, his victory came as a surprise to some. The winning margin was also unexpected.

PREMIUM TIMES highlights some factors that favoured Mr Okpebholo’s emergence as governor-elect of the south-southern state.

Obaseki’s rivalry with Oshiomhole, Philip Shaibu

The election became a proxy battle between Governor Obaseki and his predecessor and estranged “godfather,” Adams Oshiomhole, the senator representing Edo North District. Mr Oshiomhole backed Mr Okpebholo, while Mr Ighodalo had the backing of Governor Obaseki.

Political analysts believe the election outcome was Mr Oshiomhole’s political revenge against Mr Obaseki.

Mr Oshiomhole described the APC victory in the election as “very sweet.”

Beyond leading the APC campaign in the state, Mr Oshiomhole secured an overwhelming victory for his party in the Edo North District. The party polled 130,684 votes in the district, while the PDP garnered 76,959.

Similarly, analysts say Governor Obaseki’s rivalry with his estranged Deputy Governor, Philip Shaibu, must have also worked against the PDP’s chances in the election, especially in the Edo North District.

Mr Shaibu, who hails from Etsako West Council Area in the Edo North District, got into Governor Obaseki’s bad book because of his (Shaibu) ambition to succeed Mr Obaseki as governor.

Mr Obaseki masterminded Mr Shaibu’s impeachment by the Edo House of Assembly, but the latter sued the governor and the assembly and got the impeachment nullified by the court.

Mr Shaibu withdrew from the governorship race, defected to the APC and backed the party’s candidate and eventual election winner, Mr Okpebholo.

In Mr Shaibu’s Etsako West Local Government Area, the APC won with 32,107 votes, while the PDP scored 17,483.

Messrs Shaibu and Oshiomhole combined their efforts to defeat the PDP in Edo North District, apparently as revenge against their political enemy, Mr Obaseki.

Obaseki’s political baggage

Besides Mr Obaseki’s fights with Messrs Shaibu and Oshiomhole, analysts believe the PDP candidate, Mr Ighodalo, went into the Edo election carrying much of Governor Obaseki’s political baggage.

Among the baggage was Mr Obaseki’s refusal to inaugurate 14 members-elect of the Edo House Assembly from 2019 to 2023 and the governor’s ill-treatment of the deputy governor, Mr Shaibu.

The governor’s refusal to inaugurate the lawmakers-elect was to prevent Mr Oshiomhole’s loyalists from taking control of the assembly.

PREMIUM TIMES’ findings suggested that most voters from the 14 constituencies voted against Obaseki’s PDP. For instance, this newspaper’s checks showed that the PDP lost to the APC in nine of the 14 constituencies.

Again, in most of the five remaining constituencies where PDP won, the margins of victory were insignificant.

For example, in Ovia South-West Constituency, a local government area, the PDP polled 10,260 votes to defeat the APC, which had 10,150 votes.

Oredo, a local government area, has two such constituencies.

The two constituencies were among the nine in which the APC defeated the PDP, even though Governor Obaseki hails from the council area.

“Our people were very angry with Obaseki for refusing to swear in the two members-elect from Oredo,” Tosan Etchie, an indigene of the Oredo Council Area, told PREMIUM TIMES.

“I know it could be a factor in the PDP loss in my area, but I am not so sure,” said Mr Etchie.

Another of Governor Obaseki’s baggage was his feud with the Oba of Benin, Oba Ewuare II, over the then-proposed return and storage of the 1,130 stolen artefacts belonging to the state.

The governor and the Oba of Benin disagreed over where the artefacts would be housed. While the Oba wanted the artefacts kept in the Benin Royal Museum, which would be built within the Palace, Mr Obaseki insisted they be preserved in the then-proposed Edo Museum of West African Arts.

Oba of Benin is both the traditional and spiritual ruler of the Benin people, who occupy seven of the 18 local government areas in the south-south state.

Many believe the rift with the revered traditional ruler contributed to the PDP’s poor election performance.

Osas Odiase, an indigene of Ovia North-East Council Area within Benin City, told PREMIUM TIMES that over 70 per cent of Benin people are loyal to the Oba’s throne.

Mr Odiase, who resides in Egor Local Council Area, said although Mr Obaseki’s rift with the Oba played a role in Mr Ighodalo’s loss, it could not have been the major factor.

“The major thing was that some people were angry that Obaseki did not perform well, especially with regard to infrastructures,” he said.

Vote buying, other electoral malpractices

Meanwhile, there were widespread complaints that the election was marred by alleged electoral malpractices, including vote buying, vote inflation, and voter suppression.

For instance, a prominent election observation group, Yiaga Africa, reported voting buying incidents in different polling units and wards in the state during the poll.

The group added that it saw the APC and PDP agents bribing voters with N10,000 cash across the state.

Similarly, during the collation of results, the PDP had raised the alarm that the votes being announced by the INEC were inconsistent with figures from the local government areas submitted by their party agents.

Just before the final declaration of results, Tony Iyoha, the PDP State agent, alleged that the votes announced by INEC were “manufactured” because they did not reflect the votes cast.

More so, PREMIUM TIMES can confirm that the results from some polling units showed that the number of votes cast was more than the number of accredited voters.

For example, the result from Polling Unit 009 in Ward 4 in Weppa, Etsako East Council Area, showed that 406 votes were cast despite 213 voters being accredited for the poll.

The APC won with 352 votes at the polling unit, while the PDP came second with 52 votes.

Overall, the alleged incidence of electoral malpractices might have contributed to determining the election’s outcome.

Voter apathy

There was an overwhelming case of voters’ apathy across polling units and wards during the election.

Over 2.2 million voters were expected to cast their votes in the elections, according to data by INEC.

The results announced by INEC revealed that voter apathy in Nigeria’s elections has continued, with a low turnout in Edo’s 18 local government areas.

Specifically, data on INEC’s portal shows 2,629,025 registered voters in the state, but only 2,249,780 voters collected their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) and were thus eligible to vote.

A total of 583,965 people eventually voted in the election, representing 25.96 per cent of people who collected their PVCs.

The total number of votes in the election also represents 22.21 per cent of registered voters in the state.

This means that 1,665,815 voters who collected their PVCs did not cast their votes during the election. Perhaps the election outcome would have been different if most of the residents had turned out to vote, given that over 70 per cent of registered voters did not vote.