ANALYSIS: Factors that’ll influence Saturday’s governorship election in Edo

The stage is set for an epic political battle in Saturday’s governorship election in Edo State, South-south Nigeria.

Governor Godwin Obaseki will complete his second term on 12 November. He was first elected into office in 2016 on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) but was reelected in 2020 on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

His switch to the PDP followed his rift with Adams Oshiomhole, the then APC national chairperson and former governor of Edo.

Major candidates

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) cleared 17 candidates for the election, but Tom Iseghohi of the Action Alliance recently withdrew.

However, only three of the 16 remaining candidates are considered major contenders. They are the PDP candidate, Asuerinme Ighodalo, the APC candidate, Monday Okpebholo, and their Labour Party (LP) counterpart, Olumide Akpata.

The election is a three-horse race.

Zoning sentiment

There is no zoning or power rotation arrangement in Edo State. However, many are clamouring for a power shift to the Edo Central District, which has not produced a full-term governor since 1999. Oserheimen Osunbor from the district served for just one year before he was sacked by the Court of Appeal in 2008

On the other hand, the Edo South District has produced a governor for 16 years and the Edo North District for eight years.

On Nigeria’s return to civil rule in 1999, Lucky Igbinedion, from Edo South District, was elected the governor of the state and served between 1999 and 2007 under the PDP platform.

Mr Igbinedion handed over to Mr Osunbor of the PDP, but he was sacked by the appeal court, which declared Mr Oshiomhole as the winner of the 2007 governorship election.

Mr Oshiomhole of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria(ACN) hails from Edo North District and served two terms from 2008 to 2016. In 2013, the ACN merged with three other legacy parties to form the APC.

In 2016, power returned to Edo South District when the current governor, Mr Obaseki, was elected.

In this Saturday’s election, two of the three major candidates – Messrs Ighodalo (PDP) and Okpebholo (APC) – hail from the Edo Central District. The LP candidate, Mr Akpata, hails from Edo South District, where the incumbent governor also comes from.

Observers say the PDP and the APC intentionally zoned their tickets to the Edo Central District to balance the state’s power rotation and garner votes from the district.

Asuerinme Ighodalo’s chances

Mr Ighodalo, a lawyer, is backed by Governor Obaseki. The PDP candidate could take advantage of Mr Obaseki’s power of incumbency to win the election.

As the governor, Mr Obaseki controls the political structures of the state’s 18 local government areas, which could give him an advantage in mobilising support for Mr Ighodalo’s victory.

Additionally, Mr Obaseki is expected to leverage his power of incumbency to ward off threats posed by other opponents. The governor also has the financial strength to mobilise support for his party’s candidate’s victory.

Besides Mr Obaseki’s backing, Mr Ighodalo appears to enjoy some good following in the state.

More so, the zoning sentiment favours Edo Central, where the 65-year-old politician hails from, with many arguing that it is the turn of the district to produce a governor.

But Mr Ighodalo faces some challenges.

The PDP candidate comes from Edo Central, the smallest district with the lowest voting strength in the state. The district has five local government areas, and 284,878 (16.49 per cent) Permanent voter cards were collected for the exercise, according to data by INEC.

Also, Mr Ighodalo will share the votes in Edo Central with the APC candidate, Mr Okpebholo, who is also from the district.

Analysts say Governor Obaseki, who comes from the Edo South District, the largest district with the highest voting strength, needs to wield some influence in the district to win votes for the PDP candidate.

However, Edo residents have divided opinions on Mr Obaseki’s performance as governor. A negative perception of the governor’s performance may erode support for Mr Ighodalo in the election.

It needs to be stated that Mr Obaseki’s broken relationship with some PDP leaders who helped him to win reelection in 2020 may work against Mr Ighodalo. For instance, the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, helped Mr Obaseki to defeat Mr Oshiomhole’s plan to frustrate his (Obaseki) reelection in 2020. Both politicians have now fallen apart.

Overall, Mr Ighodalo appears to be the strongest contender for the position, with many tipping him to succeed Mr Obaseki.

Monday Okpebholo

Mr Okpebholo, the senator representing Edo Central District, enjoys the backing of Mr Oshiomhole, who appears poised for a rematch of the 2020 governorship race.

In the 2020 poll, Mr Obaseki switched to the PDP from the APC and went ahead to defeat Mr Oshiomhole-backed candidate.

The 2024 APC candidate is expected to benefit from Mr Oshiomhole’s determination to end PDP rule in Edo.

Also, Mr Okpebholo, 54, is backed by “federal might” – a euphemism for the use of government agencies to inappropriately influence votes. The APC is the ruling party at the federal level.

Like the PDP’s candidate, the APC candidate may also rake votes in the election due to the zoning sentiments favouring the Edo Central District.

However, the belief among residents that he was imposed on the party could work against him in the election. Mr Okpebholo clinched the APC ticket through a primary election of confusion and controversies.

Also, unlike the PDP, the APC has not been enjoying huge followership in the South-South. Similarly, Mr Okpebholo’s APC has been accused of being responsible for the biting economic hardship across Nigeria. Voters could use the Edo election to vent their angst on the APC.

In a nutshell, while Mr Okpebholo stands a chance, the APC candidate is more likely to emerge second in the poll.

Olumide Akpata

Mr Akpata is a successful lawyer who rose to become the chairperson of the Nigerian Bar Association. But his involvement in Nigerian politics is limited.

The 51-year-old LP candidate is mainly hoping to capitalise on the support of the supporters of the party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi, to succeed Governor Obaseki.

Mr Obi, a former governor of Anambra State, won in many states in the South-South, including Edo, during the 2023 elections.

Although he did not win the presidential election, his strong showing has made the LP a formidable party in Nigeria. But the wave of the Obidient Movement has since faded after Mr Obi lost the election.

Again, Mr Akpata may find himself in the crossfire of a crisis ravaging the LP lately. Some LP leaders had recently announced a caretaker committee for the party, thereby ending the reign of Julius Abure as its national chairperson.

But Mr Abure has rejected the development and accused Mr Obi and others of betrayal. The former national LP chairperson did not participate in Mr Akpata’s campaign for the Saturday poll.

Mr Akpata has another big hurdle to overcome. He comes from Edo South, the same district as Governor Obaseki. Based on zoning sentiment in the state ahead of the poll, Edo Central is favoured to produce a governor.

The LP candidate is unlikely to win the poll, with analysts tipping him to, at best, clinch a third position.