ANALYSIS: Ondo 2024: Factors likely to shape Saturday’s governorship election

Two weeks before the last Ondo State governorship election, held on 10 October 2020, political violence was reported at Ipele and Owo, two towns in Owo Local Government Area, between supporters of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

The then-PDP candidate, Eyitayo Jegede, alleged an assassination attempt during the attacks.

As the state prepares for another election on Saturday, the scenarios are completely different. Even though the battle remains between the APC and the PDP, the candidates have treaded softly and avoided violence rhetoric.

The electioneering has been peaceful across Ondo State. The sights and sounds of branded vehicles blaring loud messages from loudspeakers are few and far between and limited to the state capital, Akure.

Some said the unusual tranquillity and lack of boisterous excitement benefit the state. Others say it is because the state does not have a vibrant opposition ruffling the feathers of the APC and the incumbent governor, Lucky Aiyedatiwa.

The effect of zoning

However, some observers said the zoning of the tickets of the two major parties to the southern senatorial district kept more vibrant aspirants from other parts out of the race.

Leo Olabisi, a journalist based in Akure, said the “lacklustre campaigns” reflect the quality of the candidates and their inability to excite people in the other senatorial districts.

He noted that people in central and northern districts were merely watching how the two “brothers” would sort out themselves. He said there is a commonplace feeling that whoever wins between the two would make little difference in the governance of the state.

The incumbent, Mr Aiyedatiwa, is the APC candidate. The ruling party’s flag could also have been in the hands of his main opponent in this election, Agboola Ajayi of the PDP, who was Mr Aiyedatiwa’s predecessor as deputy governor under the late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu. Mr Agboola’s rift with Mr Akeredolu led to his replacement with Mr Aiyedatiwa in 2020.

Agboola Ajayi {Source: Official Twitter Handle}

“It is politics of regions; those with no candidates in this governorship election are not enthusiastic. They are just waiting for election day to cast their votes or may not even come out at all,” Mr Olabisi said.

There is a widespread view that the two candidates do not have political interests beyond their district. Neither appears to have passionate supporters outside their home base. Both served under Mr Akeredolu as deputy governors and were eventually accused of betraying him. Both survived impeachment moves. One was accused of certificate forgery, and the other of domestic violence; although both denied wrongdoings.

Mr Ajayi is a grassroots politician. He served as a local government chairman and a member of the House of Representatives before being elected deputy governor.

Mr Aiyedatiwa is not as experienced politically. The deputy governorship position was his first elective office.

However, an APC insider claimed the party is “lucky” in this election cycle, given its candidate’s main opponent and the weaknesses of the PDP. A party official who asked not to be named for political reasons said the APC had not spent much on its campaign.

“Not much money is being given out for mobilisation. The rallies are reduced to local communities where not much money is needed. Our campaigns have been streetwise and house to house,” he said.

Projected Voting Outcomes

Although registered voters increased from 1,822,346 in 2020 to 2,053,061, the voting pattern will likely remain unchanged despite the zoning arrangement.

Yiaga, a civil society organisation monitoring the election, observed that while Ondo Central district has the highest number of registered voters, Ondo North has had higher voter turnout than the other senatorial districts since the 2011 election.

It noted that, with the exception of the 2011 presidential election, Ondo Central has the highest case of rejected votes in all elections preceding the 2020 election.

Ondo State has 203 electoral wards/ registration areas and 3,933 polling units.

Akure South LGA in the Central District has the highest number of registered voters, about 300,000, among the LGAs. Its votes are usually critical in deciding governorship elections.

The votes in Ondo South will be split as the two leading candidates are from the district. Mr Ajayi is from Ese-Odo LGA while Mr Aiyedatiwa is from Ilaje LGA. The other local government areas in the district — Okitipupa, Irele and Ile-Oluji-Okeigbo — will vote either way.

Jimoh Ibrahim

Jimoh Ibrahim is an APC member who represents Ondo South in the district. Party loyalists believe he could hurt the governor’s prospects if he does not support him. Mr Ibrahim has yet to declare support for the governor, keeping everyone guessing what he could do in the last minutes of the campaign.

Mr Ibrahim ran for the APC ticket. When he lost the primary, he challenged Mr Aiyedatiwa’s nomination in the courts until President Bola Tinubu intervened and persuaded him to withdraw the suit. He has since been silent on the election.

A source at the APC Secretariat said Mr Ibrahim could jeopardise his political career if he does not back the governor on Saturday. As is usually the case with other elections to the National Assembly, his return to the Senate in 2027 may also depend on the governor.

Aketi Factor

Not much is being heard from the late Governor Akeredolu’s Aketi movement since the zoning arrangement eliminated its members who had earlier indicated interest in running for the office, including Wale Akinteriwa, former finance commissioner under Mr Akeredolu.

Wale Akinteriwa [PHOTO CREDIT: X]

The bitter battles the group (then dubbed “the cabal”) waged to remove Mr Aiyedatiwa as deputy governor while Mr Akeredolu was ill has marked them as political enemies of the governor.

“In Aiyedatiwa’s campaign, you will hardly hear him talk about Aketi. He is doing everything possible to destroy the former governor’s legacies. He is keeping him out of his campaign completely,” a member of the ruling party said.

However, Aketi loyalists are not likely to turn against him because they think the APC will win the election. “Everyone wants to eat and survive,” the party member said.

Daring Opposition

The PDP said the APC is unlucky with Mr Aiyedatiwa as its candidate, vowing to defeat the incumbent in the election. The PDP, despite being weakened by a series of defections, has made remarkable efforts.

Mr Ajayi is reeling out promises and programmes to convince voters that he is the right candidate to govern the state. He is believed to be very generous with money and has the capacity to dispense the goodies. However, his efforts in this direction will be neutralised by the deep vaults of the APC, which controls public funds at the centre and in the state.

Other parties

In the smaller parties, there are a few crowd-pullers who can play the spoilers in certain areas. Olugbenga Edema, formerly of the APC and now with NNPP; Sola Ebiseni of the Labour Party, who was in the PDP; and Bamidele Akingboye of the SDP are a few of them. There are feelers that some of the smaller parties may work for the major candidates.

Vote trading has already started

Money will play a major role in Saturday’s election. An Akure-based politician, Samson Akani, said victory will be determined by the ability to mobilise voters to the polling units on election day.

“This is what is done. Before the election, voters, who are the aged and young people, have already been told what to do with their cards on election day,” he said.

“They will be met in their homes and told when they will receive (money) and that is it. On the morning of the election, they will be told what to do and when to come out and vote. This is what will happen, and it has already started.”

Yiaga, in its pre-election assessment report, said the political parties were already inducing voters with gifts in the form of cash and food items.

“The ruling APC has been observed distributing fertilisers, rice, cassava, and maize to community leaders tasked with distributing these items within their areas of influence,” the report noted.

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However, the APC has denied the allegation, saying Yiaga had been misled by its observers.

Security

The security authorities said over 40,000 personnel will be on the ground to keep the peace. INEC also assured that the election will be better than the Edo State poll.

However, as Mr Akani noted, many voters may be voting not on the issues canvassed but because of what they stand to get on election day. That should be a real concern.