Analysis: #OndoDecides2024: How the winner will emerge

On Saturday, over 1.7 million voters will decide whether Lucky Aiyedatiwa will remain governor of Ondo State or will be replaced by another candidate.

Seventeen candidates are in the race, but analysts say it is a two-horse race between Mr Aiyedatiwa of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Agboola Ajayi of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Mr Ajayi is a former deputy governor of the South-west state.

PDP flagbearer, former Deputy Governor Agboola Ajayi

To emerge as the winner, a candidate must have the highest votes and at least 25 per cent of the votes in at least two-thirds (12) of the state’s 18 local government areas (LGAs).

There are 3,933 polling units and 203 electoral wards in the state.

Votes from LGAs

Ondo State comprises three senatorial districts – Ondo Central, Ondo South and Ondo North.

Ondo Central Senatorial District has the highest number of registered voters and is usually crucial in deciding the winner of the governorship races in the state.

The district’s local government areas are Akure South, Akure North, Idanre, Ifedore, Ondo East, and Ondo West.

INEC’s data showed that in this district, Akure South LGA has the highest number of registered voters, with over 500,000.

The votes in Ondo South Senatorial District will be divided because the two major contenders are from the district.

Mr Aiyedatiwa is from Ilaje LGA, while Mr Ajayi is from Ese-Odo LGA.

Ondo Governor, Lucky Aiyedatiwa (PHOTO CREDIT: @Hon. Lucky Orimisan Aiyedatiwa)

The other local government areas in the districts – Odigbo, Ile-Oluji/Okeigbo, Okitipupa and Irele will also vote either way.

Akoko South-west LGA in Ondo North Senatorial District has over 100,000 registered voters.

Akoko North-east LGA has about 77, 000, Akoko North-west about 56,667 and Akoko South-east about 34,494.

Owo is also in the northern senatorial district and also has a huge voting population. The APC deputy governorship candidate hails from here.

Voter inducement

Yiaga Africa, an election observer organisation, said during campaigns, political parties offered cash gifts and food items to induce voters.

Yiaga Africa’s Long-Term Observers (LTOs) noted instances of voter inducement during campaign activities by both the APC and PDP. They observed that cash gifts ranging from N2,000 to N5,000 were distributed to voters and supporters in 14 local government areas of the state.

The LGAs are Odigbo, Idanre, Akoko North East, Irele, Ilaje, Okitipupa, Owo, Akoko South West, Ondo East, Ese-Odo, Ifedore, Akoko South East, Akoko North West, and Akure South.

Voter Turnout

The number of eligible voters in this year’s election is higher than that of previous polls. However, analysts have predicted a low turnout.

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For instance, since 2011, voter turnout has not exceeded 40 per cent in the state.

Ondo North has a long history of high voter turnout compared to other senatorial districts since the 2011 election.

Ondo Central has the highest concentration of registered voters. However, with the exception of the 2011 presidential election, the district had the highest number of rejected votes in all elections preceding the 2020 election.