Asian stocks tank after US data fans recession fears

3 months ago 29

The yen has surged against the dollar to hit its strongest level since January

Tokyo led a plunge across Asian equities Monday, while the yen hit a six-month high after weak US jobs data fanned fears of a recession in the world's top economy and boosted bets on several Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

The sell-off followed another hefty day of losses on Wall Street, where heavyweight tech firms including Amazon and Microsoft took the brunt owing to worries an AI-fuelled rally this year may have been overdone.

A much-anticipated report Friday showed the US economy added just 114,000 jobs last month, well down from June and far fewer than expected, while the jobless rate rose to the highest level since October 2021.

The news came a day after lacklustre factory data that stoked concerns that Fed officials may have held borrowing costs at more than two-decade highs too long.

That has led to speculation the economy could be in for a hard landing and tip into recession.

Markets are "still reeling from last Friday's seismic shifts in the global financial landscape", said Stephen Innes in his Dark Side Of The Boom newsletter.

"The trigger? A US employment report that missed the mark so badly didn't just drop jaws -- it dropped stocks and bond yields while sending volatility and rate cut expectations through the roof."

He pointed out that "the mood was already souring in Asia" following a disappointing bath of earnings from tech titans such as Tesla and Alphabet as well as a rate hike by the Bank of Japan and more weak Chinese economic data.

"Mix these, and you have the perfect market meltdown recipe."

The losses in New York were followed in Asia, with Tokyo's Nikkei tanking more than seven percent at one point, while Taipei and Seoul were also heavily sold.

The selling was also making officials in Tokyo sit up after the Nikkei shed 5.8 percent on Friday -- its biggest loss since 2021 during the pandemic. The market is down almost 20 percent from its record high touched just a month ago.

More Fed cuts on cards?

Japan's top government spokesman Yoshimasa Hayashi said it "will continue to stay on its toes and monitor market developments with keen interest".

"We're aware there are various evaluations regarding the stocks plunge this time around, and about the status of the Japanese economy, but the government will continue its efforts to completely break free of deflation and to transition to a growth-driven economy."

The biggest losers were tech firms, with chip titan TSMC losing more than six percent in Taipei, while Seoul-listed Samsung was off more than five percent and SK hynix down around four percent.

Hong Kong and Shanghai dropped, with traders brushing off a set of directives released by China aimed at boosting household consumption in the world's number two economy.

There were also big losses in Sydney, Singapore, Manila, Jakarta and Wellington.

The yen broke through 145 per dollar for the first time since January as the jobs report ramped up expectations the Fed will slash rates.

The US central bank had signalled after its latest meeting Wednesday that slowing inflation and a softening labour market meant it could cut next month, with traders predicting two or three 25-basis-point reductions before January.

Now there is speculation it will lower rates a full percentage-point in that time.

Taylor Nugent at National Australia Bank said: "The Fed doesn't meet again until September 18. There is one more payrolls report and two (consumer price indexes) before then.

"It's hard to imagine they could stop the Fed cutting in September, with interest instead on whether they support a 50-basis-point move and how rapid cuts will be going forward."

The yen -- which just last month hit a nearly four-decade low close to 162 to the dollar -- was also boosted by the Bank of Japan's decision last week to hike interest rates for just the second time in 17 years and suggestion more could be on the way.