Bandits shift kidnapping focus in Nigeria’s north

On 19 May 2024, bandits raided Dawaki, a community in Nigeria’s capital Abuja, kidnapping 20 people. This marked the start of a series of kidnappings in both urban and semi-urban areas. The GI-TOC has identified at least six other kidnapping incidents in the outskirts of urban centres in Kaduna, Zamfara, Katsina and Abuja that appear to have been committed by bandit groups since May. The most recent incident involved the killing of a resident of Bwari in Abuja and the kidnapping of the deceased’s wife and children on 29 August.

As early as January 2024, Nigeria’s Minister of Defence, Mohammed Abubakar, blamed bandits originating from Kaduna and Niger states for a new spate of abductions in Abuja after a father and his six daughters were kidnapped in Bwari, a suburb of the federal capital. The bandits later released the family in Kajuru forest, a notorious bandit hotspot in Kaduna, but only after killing one of the girls and collecting a ransom payment.

Previously, the activities of armed bandits – operating under gangs that engage in cattle rustling, kidnapping, extortion and lethal attacks against local communities – had been located primarily in villages and rural settlements in north-west and north-central Nigeria. The apparent spread of kidnapping activity towards urban centres has significant implications for safety and stability in north-west and north-central Nigeria and could mark a step change in bandits’ income generation strategies.

Exhaustion of rural kidnapping targets?

Banditry has a long history in north-west Nigeria, dating back to the pre-colonial period. However, it escalated significantly in 2011 from small-scale cattle theft and armed robbery to large-scale cattle rustling, kidnapping and lethal violence, due in large part to the intensification of farmer–herder conflicts and rising unemployment. As bandits expanded their operations, their activities became increasingly violent, especially in Maru, a local government area in Zamfara State, and in Gusau, the state capital. Armed banditry subsequently spread to Kaduna and other neighbouring states before depletion of cattle stocks – and an exodus of herders southwards to safer parts of Nigeria – prompted a switch in focus to kidnapping.

From 2019 to 2022, kidnappings surged in the North-west, becoming the primary income source for armed bandit groups. There were an estimated 662 kidnapping-related events between 2019 and 2022. However, kidnappings of individuals began to decrease in the first quarter of 2023 and have continued to decline in 2024. This drop is likely due to reduced profitability, as wealthy targets have either left the region or become financially exhausted by repeated kidnappings and ransom demands.

Meanwhile, mass abductions by bandits surged once again in the first quarter of 2024 but remained concentrated in rural settings. The spike was probably due to several factors, including the decreasing profitability of kidnapping individuals – a factor that has also likely contributed to the more recent increase in urban abductions.

Rural mass abductions appeared to trail off from March 2024, giving way to kidnappings by bandits in urban and semi-urban settings.

Kidnappings in rural and urban areas of Nigeria, March to August 2024.

[note] LGA refers to ‘local government area’, an administrative division governed by a local council, serving as a third tier of government below the federal and state levels.

Urban and semi-urban kidnappings: key drivers

The recent kidnappings around Abuja have put a lot of fear in the hearts of residents of the city,’ said a police officer serving in the federal capital. “People used to think kidnapping was a problem for villagers only but now it is also a major problem for people in the cities.” Investigations into kidnapping incidents found that some bandits arrested in Abuja had come from Zamfara and Kebbi. This indicates that the perpetrators of these new urban kidnappings are the same bandit groups that have been operating across the rural North-west.

Several factors could be driving the rise in kidnappings in urban and semi-urban areas. Alongside the dwindling supply of wealthy rural targets, intensified military operations since 2023 have restricted bandits’ activities in the North-west and North-central regions, including across strategic areas like key transport corridors. This has forced them to seek new areas of operation, including urban and semi-urban zones.

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A senior government official in Kaduna reported that bandits are increasingly targeting semi-urban parts of the state because security forces have prevented them from operating along the major road linking Kaduna and Abuja. “Their goal is to take over the Abuja–Kaduna highway, but [they] have been denied,” he said. “So they go for soft targets, attacking outskirts of the city centre.”

Dialogues between bandit groups and communities since 2023 might also have influenced this rural-urban shift. A growing number of communities, especially in Zamfara, have negotiated with bandit groups. Agreements reached through such negotiations revolve around preventing bandits from targeting those communities, likely contributing to the geographic displacement of bandit activities. However, many previous agreements between bandits and communities have proved fragile, indicating that the latest truces could easily unravel.

Future implications of urban kidnappings

The shift to kidnappings in urban and semi-urban areas generates significant new income possibilities for bandits, who have proven to be nimble in moving between distinct revenue streams and will likely win entry to other forms of urban criminality.

Adding to concerns, urban kidnappings undermine the role of urban centres as safe havens for people fleeing from violence in rural areas. As bandits begin to operate in these areas, residents of affected communities are left with diminishing options for safe refuge. This could accelerate the loss of trust in authorities among communities repeatedly targeted by bandits.

The spread of kidnappings into urban areas underscores the dangers of current, predominantly military, approaches to combating the groups in the north-west region of Nigeria – namely of geographically displacing, rather than necessarily achieving wholesale reduction, of bandit activities. Evaluating the risks caused by displacement and close monitoring to track bandit infiltration of new areas, should be integrated into response strategies. These strategies should complement securitized responses with community resilience initiatives.

“This article was developed by The Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, and printed in the West Africa Risk Bulletin. Premium Times has its permission to publish the article.”