Beyond Numbers: Rethinking Nigeria’s Path To Prosperity

As Nigeria prepares to rebase its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this November, many eagerly await the results, curious to see what new figures might reveal. This rebasing exercise, the first since 2014, promises to adjust Nigeria’s GDP to account for economic changes and expansions over the past decade. In 2014, this update made Nigeria the largest economy in Africa, boosting GDP by 89% and capturing sectors that were then emerging, like telecommunications and pensions. Yet a similar recalculation today should not simply be about rankings—it should encourage a more meaningful view of prosperity. True economic health is measured not solely by size but by the quality of life it enables.

GDP, though useful for assessing economic output, resembles a thermometer measuring only surface temperature. In reality, a healthy economy needs a full checkup, one that considers multiple indicators and reveals the deeper wellness of society. For Nigeria to understand its economic journey fully, policymakers must look beyond GDP to include metrics like the Human Development Index (HDI) and Social Progress Index (SPI). Together, these indicators provide a richer portrait of a nation’s prosperity, directing attention to the well-being of citizens, not merely to aggregate numbers.

GDP: The Frame, Not the Full Picture

Rebasing GDP is like updating a frame around a picture—it sharpens the edges without changing the content. Just as a new frame can bring out details blurred by age, rebasing GDP can make economic growth more visible. But a frame, no matter how stylish, is only as valuable as the picture it holds. Nigeria’s true picture should reflect genuine progress in reducing poverty, expanding healthcare, improving education, and creating a safe and just society. Without these details, an updated GDP remains an empty decoration, not a meaningful measure of life in Nigeria.

Economist Dudley Seers highlighted this distinction in 1969, asserting that development cannot be measured by GDP alone. Real development, he argued, is best measured by a reduction in poverty, unemployment, and inequality. Nigerian leaders would do well to remember Seers’ insight and look beyond GDP’s frame to the reality it holds. While rebasing GDP may reaffirm Nigeria’s economic position within Africa, the nation’s true worth lies in whether its people are healthier, safer, and more educated.

Focusing solely on GDP can be likened to staring at the size of a tree without understanding its root system. Just as a tree with shallow roots will topple in a storm, an economy that lacks depth in health, education, and well-being is vulnerable to setbacks. This rebasing is Nigeria’s chance to dig deeper, expanding its metrics to assess social and economic resilience more meaningfully.

Social Progress: The Heartbeat of Prosperity

GDP may show the output of an economy, but metrics like the Social Progress Index (SPI) measure its heartbeat. The SPI, which assesses access to healthcare, education, and safety, focuses on fundamental needs that GDP often overlooks. Just as a heartbeat reveals the vitality of a body, SPI indicators reveal the vitality of a nation, offering insight into whether citizens are flourishing or merely surviving.

Nigeria’s SPI ranking remains low, revealing a reality in which economic gains have not translated into widespread social progress. Basic needs such as clean water, quality healthcare, and housing remain unmet for many Nigerians. A rebased GDP might show growth, but without corresponding improvements in SPI-targeted areas, it remains a hollow achievement. The heartbeat of Nigeria’s prosperity lies not in GDP but in ensuring that its people have access to the necessities for a dignified life. If these core needs remain unmet, even the most impressive GDP figures will ring hollow.

Human Development: The Foundation of a Flourishing Society

If GDP is the frame and SPI the heartbeat, then the Human Development Index (HDI) is the foundation upon which lasting prosperity is built. The HDI captures essential elements of human welfare—life expectancy, education, and income. Just as a house needs a strong foundation to withstand the elements, a nation needs a strong HDI to ensure that its people can thrive in an unpredictable world. Nigeria’s HDI, however, remains low, underscoring the gap between economic output and actual quality of life.

When a country invests in HDI-focused areas, it builds a resilient economy capable of withstanding future challenges. Consider the power of education: an educated population is better equipped to adapt to new industries, respond to economic shifts, and foster innovation. Similarly, improved healthcare enhances workforce productivity and national life expectancy. The government should view HDI improvements as a priority investment in Nigeria’s foundation, ensuring that every citizen can contribute to and benefit from the nation’s growth.

Without focusing on HDI, relying solely on GDP is like attempting to build a skyscraper on sand. If Nigeria wants a robust economy, it must prioritize HDI, investing in areas that elevate citizens’ well-being rather than merely celebrating GDP rankings. By focusing on HDI, Nigeria can construct an economy that serves its people, rather than expecting its people to serve the economy.

Beyond Rankings: Toward a Prosperity That Lasts

For too long, GDP has been Nigeria’s primary scorecard, capturing economic size without reflecting genuine prosperity. Measuring progress solely by GDP is like judging a book by its cover—it gives a glimpse of scale but not of substance. A high GDP may impress globally, but it tells us little about the lives of ordinary Nigerians. True progress should manifest in better schools, accessible healthcare, safer communities, and opportunities that uplift all citizens, not just the elite.

As Nigeria rebases its GDP, it has an opportunity to redefine prosperity. If we fixate on economic size alone, we risk building a nation of numbers, not a nation of people. Prosperity should be gauged by how well Nigeria meets the needs of its citizens. The government should focus on improving HDI and SPI scores not for global rankings but to enhance everyday life within Nigeria.

It is also crucial that this rebasing be transparent, with no manipulation to create a sense of superficial economic success. Nigeria’s leaders should approach this exercise not as a means to boost ego or status but as a chance to gauge real needs and craft policies that genuinely benefit the people. Transparency will reinforce trust in the government and in Nigeria’s economic data, ensuring that domestic and international stakeholders view the rebasing with confidence.

A rebased GDP might shift Nigeria’s position on a global ranking, but true progress will be measured by whether citizens’ lives improve tangibly. If Nigeria’s leaders embrace a balanced approach to prosperity, they can set a new standard that emphasizes resilience, inclusion, and social welfare. By moving beyond GDP and prioritizing human and social development, Nigeria can cultivate an economy that rises in value and values its people.

This rebasing exercise is a starting point, not a final destination. To achieve prosperity that endures, Nigeria must balance GDP with indicators that ensure growth is both inclusive and meaningful. Only by looking beyond the surface can we build an economy that truly serves the nation and its people. In this vision of progress, GDP may serve as a measure, but human dignity will remain the mark of true success.