Data Story: How new governor will emerge in Edo

Over 2.2 million voters will go to the polls on Saturday to elect Godwin Obaseki’s successor as governor of Edo State.

The voters will elect one of 16 candidates to replace Mr Obaseki, whose final four-year term expires in November.

The candidates jostling for the position were originally 17 until Tom Iseghohi of the Action Alliance (AA) dropped out of the race recently. However, the AA will still be on the ballot due to several reasons, including the late withdrawal.

However, analysts say it is a three-horse race between Asuerinme Ighodalo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Monday Okpebholo of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party (LP).

To emerge as the winner, a candidate must have the highest votes and at least 25 per cent of the votes in at least two-thirds (12) of the state’s 18 local government areas (LGAs).

Where the votes are coming from

Edo State in the South-south comprises three senatorial districts.

Edo South Senatorial District has the highest number of registered voters with 1,254,424 (55.76 per cent), while Edo North Senatorial District has the second highest with 629,397 (27.98 per cent) and Edo Central has 356,959 voters (16.27 per cent).

Messrs Ighodalo and Okpebholo hail from the central district while Mr Akpata is from the southern district.

LGAs, Wards

There are 4,519 Polling Units and 192 Electoral Wards across the 18 LGAs of the state.

The highest registered voter count is in Ikpoba/Okha LGA, which has 312,453. Next is Oredo LGA, which has 274,463, and Egor LGA, which has 203,996 eligible voters. The three councils are in the southern district.

The fourth is Etsako West LGA in Edo North Senatorial District with 175,467 eligible voters, followed by Ovia North-east LGA in Edo South, which has 148,809 registered voters.

Four of the five local governments with the highest eligible voters are in Edo South while one is in Edo North.

Orhionmwon LGA has 128,653 registered voters; Ovia South-west LGA 103,119; Ovia North-east 148,809; Uhunmwode 82,958; Akoko Edo 143,851; Owan-east 96,091; Owan-west 62,289; Etsako-central 53,609; and Etsako-east 98,090.

Esan-central LGA has 57, 569; Esan North-east 82,578; Esan South-east 82,144; Esan-west 93,726; and Igueben 49,943.

Breakdown of voters by demography

According to INEC, there are 1,370,061 male voters, representing 52 per cent, while 1,258,964 (48 per cent) are female voters.

The majority of the voters are youth between the ages of 18 and 35 years. This demography constitutes 81.89 per cent of the registered voters, followed by the middle-aged 36-49 years having 15,409 or 12.93 per cent. The elderly, 50-69 years old, constitute 4.62 per cent while 70 years and above are only 0.48 per cent of the registered voters.

Voters turnout

The number of eligible voters in this year’s governorship election is higher than those of the previous polls since 1999.

Analysts have predicted low turnout due to security concerns. There was also low turnout in previous governorship elections in the state.

For instance, 622,039 out of the 1,900,223 registered voters (33 per cent) exercised their franchise in the 2016 governorship election, while 550,242 of 2,210,534 registered voters (25 per cent) cast their votes in the 2020 election.

Possible violence

YIAGA Africa, a civil society organisation, has already identified eight local government areas as potential hotspots on election day.

The areas are Ikpoba/Okha, Oredo, Egor, Ovia South-west, Ovia North-east, Esan South-east, Etsako West, and Etsako East.

Five of the local government areas are in Edo South, two in Edo North and one in Edo Central