Experts proffer solutions as unpredictable weather threatens food security

With rising sea levels, fluctuating rainfall, and higher temperatures becoming the new normal, changing weather patterns are profoundly impacting various aspects of life.

Among the many sectors affected is agriculture, a cornerstone of Nigeria’s economy and a major source of employment for about 200 million citizens.

Given agriculture’s critical role in the economy, any disruption poses severe risks not only to food production but also to the livelihoods of millions.

In Nigeria, the most significant rainfall occurs from April to October, with minimal rainfall witnessed from November to March.

However, the recent drought poses a serious risk to food production and food security in the country.

Recently, farmers in Kogi State lamented the cessation of rainfall at a crucial period for nourishing crops.

Desperate for relief from the drought, they turned to prayers, hoping for the rain to fall and save their harvests.

The Kogi State Commissioner for Agriculture, Timothy Ojomah, and the state Chairman of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, Salihu Adobayi, expressed concern that it had not rained in the state for over a month.

They warned that the ongoing drought would undermine the state government’s efforts to support farmers.

“We have to resort to prayers for God to help send rain to us in Kogi because we may not achieve the desired food production and security,” they said in a report by the News Agency of Nigeria.

Adobayi noted that the last rainfall in the state was on July 11, adding that the absence of rainfall for one month had a severe negative impact on farming in the region.

Speaking further on the situation, Adobayi said, “Unfortunately, we are facing drought across the state right now. It has affected most of our crops, especially rice and maize farms, particularly those that are almost maturing. I was at my maize farm yesterday, and it was a pitiful situation.

“Our hope is in God and the prediction of NiMET that there will be a serious downpour beginning 18th August. If the rain falls, there is hope that some crops can be saved. But if it persists, it will not augur well for us because the crops depend on water to survive.”

While the farmers waited for divine intervention, they hinted that some form of mechanised farming could provide a more practical solution.

“If the government introduces the use of solar water pumps for farmers in the state, it will place Kogi on a high pedestal in food production and security in the country.

“This will help us overcome this drought we are experiencing now and any that may surface in the future,” Adobayi stated.

Nigeria has over 70.8 million hectares of agricultural land, with major crops including maize, cassava, guinea corn, yam, beans, millet, and rice cultivated on them.

However, with the unsteady weather, agriculture is increasingly threatened by climate change. With the economy’s heavy reliance on agriculture, it is essential to address this issue to ensure food security through modern methods such as mechanised farming and the use of technology.

Mechanised farming is large-scale farming that utilises machinery in almost everything, and some are precision-guided.

It involves using machinery like planters, tractors, harvesters, fertiliser applicators, etc.

Mechanised farming could help local farmers prevent losses due to climate change, according to a Professor of Agronomy, Professor Ibrahim Abubakar,.

He added, “Mechanised farming may have a role because, with mechanised farming, if you are practising precision agriculture, you are likely to rely on weather forecasting, which guides you on how to escape either drought or flood.

“If you have a forecast that indicates a dry spell, you can avoid planting your crops during that period, which is likely not to affect your yield. For floods, you are likely to know when and where they will occur, helping you to avoid losses.

“Weather changes not only affect rainfall; they also affect temperature. For example, wheat during the dry season does not require high temperatures. If you have the forecast, you can plan your planting dates to avoid periods of high temperatures, minimising the impact on your crops.”

Abubakar, who is with the Faculty of Agriculture and Institute for Agricultural Research, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, noted that climate change also affects the vulnerability of plants to disease attacks.

“Pests and diseases are also affected by climate change. When you have periods of dry spells, fall armyworms attack maize, sorghum, and other cereal crops.

“During dry spells, it becomes more prevalent. If you are likely, through the forecast, to know when it is a period of low rainfall, you avoid planting seedlings in that period. Tuta absoluta is another pest that devastates tomatoes. When it is too rainy, the humidity is very high, and many diseases affect crops,” Abubakar added.

However, the challenge Nigerian farmers face in embracing mechanised farming is the size of the land cultivated, according to the professor.

An average Nigerian farmer cultivates just about a hectare of land, whereas mechanised farming is best suited for large-scale farmers who cultivate over 10,000 hectares of land.

Making a comparison, he remarked, “In advanced countries, farmers make up about just five to 10 per cent of the population. They feed the nation and export because they use a mechanised farming approach, but here in Nigeria, we have about 70 to 80 per cent of people who are farmers, and most of them are small-scale farmers with a maximum of one hectare or even less,” he observed.

Nigeria ranks among the lowest globally in terms of agricultural mechanisation, according to the National Agricultural Technology and Innovation Policy 2022-2027.

The Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development indicated that Nigeria’s mechanisation is at 0.027 hp/hectare, which is far below the Food and Agriculture Organisation’s recommendation of 1.5 hp/hectare.

The FAO also highlighted that low technology, high production costs, poor distribution of inputs, limited financing, high post-harvest losses, and poor access to markets are among the challenges facing farmers in Nigeria.

Despite several government initiatives and programmes aimed at addressing these issues, Nigeria remains technologically behind in agriculture.

For instance, in 2020, the Federal Government launched the $1.2bn Green Imperative Programme, intended to revolutionise agriculture in Nigeria. This initiative was expected to address many of the challenges facing the sector.

On his part, AFAN’s National President, Kabir Kebram, noted that while the Nigerian Meteorological Agency had earlier warned of irregularities in the rainy season, the current challenges are what farmers are now crying out about.

“Since 2021, we have been experiencing irregular rain patterns and, in some cases, flooding. Before now, flooding occurred at 10-year intervals, but since 2022, it has become an annual occurrence.

“Whenever these changes occur, productivity is affected, and that’s why we are seeing challenges in the food system, especially around unusual price hikes.

“The incidence of flooding or drought affects productivity, leading to scarcity that can create inflation. Crop yield is significantly impacted by abrupt changes in rain patterns,” Kebram said.

With these challenges, a poor harvest is likely, exacerbating inflation and potentially leading to famine, he warned.

Kebram further noted that for farmers in rural and low-income communities, the situation could be more dire.

Speaking on ways to address this, he urged farmers to insure their produce to reduce losses.

They should also consider planting early-maturing seeds as well as drought-resistant ones.

According to him, government intervention in assisting farmers with good seeds and other inputs after suffering losses due to drought and flooding is helpful.

He added, “Sometimes palliatives are given, although such measures are not sustainable.”

As Nigeria continues to grapple with the challenges posed by climate change, urgent measures are needed to equip farmers with the tools and knowledge to adapt.

Without such interventions, the nation risks not only poor harvests but also exacerbating food insecurity that will threaten the well-being of millions.