New Cold War raging, Africa must be careful – Gambari

The former UN Undersecretary General, Ibrahim Gambari, has warned of a brewing new Cold War, threatening to divide African nations along geopolitical lines.

Mr Gambari, a professor and former minister of foreign affairs, made this point at the Realnews Conference in Lagos. The text of his presentation was shared with PREMIUM TIMES. In it, he highlighted Africa’s precarious position in a rapidly shifting global order.

Speaking on the theme: “Africa in World Shifting Geopolitics: Matters Arising on Demography, Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Natural Resources,” Mr Gambari urged Africans “to take a step back and reflect on the contours of change around us and also see that as an invitation to begin to seriously think through their implications for our immediate future and long-term interest.”

The diplomat said dynamic events continue to transform the workings of the international system while nations, big and small, north and south, are busy preparing themselves to ensure that they are neither left behind nor reduced to victims of the new order that is in the making.

The former minister emphasised the growing militarisation of global powers, with investments spanning advanced weaponry, space, and cyberspace. In his words: “A relentless militarisation is taking place” across the world, from the Atlantic to the Pacific, the Arctic to the Antarctic, on land, in the air, on the seas, and in outer space.

Rich in natural resources and strategically located, Africa has become a key battleground in the global power struggle, he said.

Advanced militaries are looking for prime locations around the world that offer some form of strategic advantage. Mr Gambari said that with an abundance of such strategic sites, it is not surprising that Africa has become the target of competitive bids from the big and middle powers setting up military bases.

The Rio Times reports that foreign military bases are proliferating across the continent. These bases serve not only security interests but also function as platforms for controlling Africa’s natural wealth and arable land. Experts say this represents a modern echo of colonial ambitions.

A clear example is Djibouti, strategically located near the Red Sea. It hosts Camp Lemonnier, the United States’ only permanent base in Africa, alongside China’s first overseas military installation, established in 2017.

“We know that the entire seaboard of Africa is already dotted with military bases operated by various powers; the continent is once again at the centre of a scramble as the new Cold War intensifies. In addition to geo-strategic considerations in the event of conflicts and war, there are strong interests in securing access to and control of strategic and critical minerals and arable land and forests,” Mr Gambari said.

The Chief of Staff to former President Muhammadu Buhari also noted that competitive investments are being made in building stable and durable political alliances with the governments of various countries and that the age of “zero-sum geopolitics” is back with all its destabilising consequences for African countries.

Foreign military formations in Africa symbolise a broader competition for influence with nations like France, Germany, India, and the UK expanding their military presence on the continent. China and Russia have emerged as central players in this geopolitical game.

While Beijing’s infrastructure investments and debt relief aim to solidify political alliances, Moscow provides weapons and military support to various regimes. Their growing influence underscores Africa’s increasing importance in global geopolitics.

Despite its challenges, Africa holds a significant demographic advantage with a young and growing population. Mr Gambari stressed that this potential remains underutilised due to persistent economic struggles.

“With well over a billion people and with an overwhelmingly youthful population, Mr Gambari said the African continent is destined for a significant role in the demographics of the world at a time when populations are both declining and ageing rapidly in many other parts of the world.”

He believes that taking advantage of the African demographic dividend in a renewed season of new global geopolitics effectively means that African countries “must build national and regional strategies to leverage the energy, innovative acumen, and futuristic vision of its young people in order to ensure that as a new world order takes shape, we are positioned to be joint rule makers.”

The former minister also urged African leaders to utilise the continent’s talent and human resources

“Although there is no doubt that we are in the throes of rapid, complex, multidimensional change in global affairs, it is equally important to know that the outcomes of the ongoing geopolitical shifts are not necessarily destined to be at the expense of or to the detriment of our people and continent. That means that we must be ready to harness our abundant human and natural resources to leapfrog our development in order to achieve the structural transformation that has eluded us for too long.”

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“It also means that we cannot afford to sit on the sidelines while the rules of a new world order are being written; we have the opportunity to insist on being joint rule makers so that the new global order that is being forged reflects our values and aspirations for a fairer, more inclusive, and equitable world.

“In this, we must ensure that our youth bulge is turned into an advantage that puts us at the forefront of the digital economy and the innovations underpinning it,” Mr Gambari said.