Nigeria and the second coming of Trump, By Bámidélé Adémólá-Olátéjú,

Donald Trump [PHOTO CREDIT: ABC12]

…it is necessary to have a private technical committee to deliberate and craft a response to deal with the anticipated economic and foreign policy fallouts of Trump’s second coming. We must now revive what should have been the mantra starting thirty years ago – “export or perish”. A complete overhaul of our institutions such as the Nigerian Customs, the Ports and all international trade facilitation systems is overdue. There really ought to have been from a very long time ago.

The United Kingdom’s devaluation of the pound sterling in 1967 caught many countries in the “Sterling Zone” flat-footed. Unlike most of the other countries in that zone, Nigeria was so well prepared, that the British government, in a document recently declassified, had cause to be perturbed as to whether the Nigerian government had a “mole” in the British treasury. In an age in which the economy of nations depends on econometricians, financial mathematicians and super computers, there is no excuse for us not be even more nimble footed and as proactive as we were to applause in 1967. Did we anticipate Donald J. Trump’s second coming? If yes, what scenario planning did we put in place in anticipation of his victory as President of the United States of America?

Donald Trump is easily one of the most transparent politicians ever. He may lie but he never hid his beliefs, as stated in the slogan, “Make America Great Again.” As embarrassing as “Project 2025” might appear to be, the truth is that it will drive the Trump agenda. The same way the Federalist drove the American Supreme Court to the right. We might recall that Mrs Margaret Thatcher’s victory in the United Kingdom election back in the day bears striking similarities to Trump’s 5th of November victory. Like Trump’s project 2025, Margaret Thatcher’s unofficial think-thank also had a manifesto that was different from the official manifesto of the Conservative Party. Eventually, Thatcher’s delivery was based on these alternative policy positions. Whatever plan Nigeria has, any scenario planning must factor in the unofficial project 2025.

The implications for Nigeria must include a clear anticipation that the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) may not be renewed next year. The Republican Party is now in control of Congress. He is most certainly unsympathetic and prone to misinterpret initiatives such as AGOA as handouts to “shithole” countries. Nigeria has not taken advantage of AGOA, but its abrogation will still have negative consequences on us. Just like a ten per cent tariff on all foreign goods, as well as sixty per cent surcharge on imports from China. Nigerian exports to the United States, including petroleum, will be affected by the imposition of tariffs. The “drill, baby, drill” mantra has been the rally cry of Republicans. What is the plan if United States production of oil is ramped up? How will this affect its oil purchase from Nigeria, as well as global oil prices?

One of the ways to prepare is to harness our strengths and areas of competitive advantage. In 2025, I suggest the government should put together two business investment fora. One in Rotterdam in the Netherlands, focussed on trade deals and partnerships for value addition agro industrials. Two, plan and implement a Creative Arts investment forum in Atlanta chaired by a well-known creative like Oprah Winfrey or Tyler Perry.

Unless there is a blow out in the Middle East, a ten per cent increase in tariffs and sixty per cent on Chinese goods will lead to price increases in the United States. Many American consumers will have buyers’ regret for voting for Trump by this time next year. In turn, price increases will lead to increases in interest rates by the United States federal Reserve Bank. Which means, Nigeria will pay more for the dollar, which in turn will affect our pursuit of “Hot-Money” portfolio investors from the United States. There is every reason to anticipate higher debt servicing cost for Nigeria and higher interest rates in Nigeria. Like the Boys Scouts – we must be prepared.

One of the ways to prepare is to harness our strengths and areas of competitive advantage. In 2025, I suggest the government should put together two business investment fora. One in Rotterdam in the Netherlands, focussed on trade deals and partnerships for value addition agro industrials. Two, plan and implement a Creative Arts investment forum in Atlanta chaired by a well-known creative like Oprah Winfrey or Tyler Perry. The forum will seek to attract big hitters across the creative arts sector. Through that, we can seek to blend the home-based creatives and their contemporaries in the diaspora to jumpstart a formidable art scene presence.

This linkage has enormous potential to make the creative arts sector a major source of foreign exchange earnings, as obtained in India currently. India makes $2 billion from the creative arts, and Nigeria can aim for $600 million annually by 2028. To protect creative endeavours, one of the first steps is a revamp of Intellectual property laws, code sharing and the development of production facilities. The repertoire of what is doable is mind blowing. For example, animating the novels of DO Fagunwa with studios like Pixar studio is worth an oil block, and far more valuable than Toy Story, which made $500 million in profits.

We need “a Minister-in-the Ministry” of trade and investment who would have won the dual mandate of a British-style president of The Board of Trade and a Japanese-style minister of International trade and industries. For what it is worth, this must be considered with the fierce urgency of now, as we prepare for the second coming of Donald Trump. We must turn the Trump era into advantage. In the words of the British Secret Service; “He who dares wins!”

In view of all the above, it is necessary to have a private technical committee to deliberate and craft a response to deal with the anticipated economic and foreign policy fallouts of Trump’s second coming. We must now revive what should have been the mantra starting thirty years ago – “export or perish”. A complete overhaul of our institutions such as the Nigerian Customs, the Ports and all international trade facilitation systems is overdue. There really ought to have been from a very long time ago.

We need “a Minister-in-the Ministry” of trade and investment who would have won the dual mandate of a British-style president of The Board of Trade and a Japanese-style minister of International trade and industries. For what it is worth, this must be considered with the fierce urgency of now, as we prepare for the second coming of Donald Trump. We must turn the Trump era into advantage. In the words of the British Secret Service; “He who dares wins!”

Bámidélé Adémólá-Olátéjú, former Commissioner for Information in Ondo State, is the head of New Media and Corporate Services for the All Progressives Congress. Twitter: @BamideleUpfront; Facebook: facebook.com/Bamidele. BAO