Nigeria may experience gas supply crisis in 2030 – NUPRC

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has expressed fear that Nigeria may face a gas supply crisis in 2030.

NUPRC’s Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe, stated this during the ongoing energy conference in Lagos.

According to Komolafe, between 2020 and 2030, demand for gas is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 16.6 per cent per annum.

“And Nigeria may face an impending gas supply crisis with a potential shortfall of 3.1 billion cubic feet per day by 2030 in the ‘Base Case Demand and Supply’ scenario,” he stated.

In his special industry address at the conference themed, ‘Gas as Energy Transition Fuel: Navigating Nigeria’s Trilemma of Finance, Energy Security, and International Politics’, Komolafe maintained that the post-Paris Agreement era had witnessed a growing recognition of the urgency to combat climate change.

Consequently, he noted that more countries and entities are establishing carbon neutrality targets, which in turn have resulted in a global shift towards a more sustainable and low-carbon energy landscape.

This, he said, has also brought about a decline in oil and gas investment as investors and financiers face mounting pressure from various fronts.

Komolafe maintained that the blueprint for various pathways to energy transition aligns perfectly with NUPRC’s national stance on “just transition”.

“The agenda for Nigeria and other resource-rich developing economies is that the evolving energy dynamics must be calibrated against geography, history, and politics as well as the need for energy justice, equity, inclusivity, and sustainability.

“The new dynamics in the global energy arena necessitate that Nigeria, a country long dependent on the exploitation of oil and gas as the mainstay of its economy, re-examine its strategy to secure a blossoming energy future while meeting the global climate goals.

“The future we envisage for the petroleum industry should assure for the utilisation of Nigeria’s endowed natural hydrocarbon resources for shared prosperity, energy accessibility, affordability, sustainability, security as well as energy independence and energy sovereignty which are the cardinal pillars of the Nigeria Energy Transition Plan,” he stated.

Komolafe recalled that the government had declared natural gas as the immediate transition fuel because it provides a cleaner alternative to oil and coal, emitting significantly fewer greenhouse gases while maintaining the reliability needed to power industries and homes.

“Unfolding event has equally shown that natural gas is our destination fuel, with a projection that gas will form a significant part of the energy mix for Nigeria by the year 2030 and beyond. In recognition of this, the government has designed a programme that ensures that gas plays a role to lift us from the challenges that confront us to drive industrial development: 2021 to 2030 was declared as the Decade of Gas,” he noted.