Ondo 2024: Strengths, chances of leading governorship candidates

“There is no new thing under the sun” is a widely quoted adage by the biblical sage Solomon. This statement fits well with the current expectations of Saturday’s governorship election in Ondo State.

The election is a repeat of rivalries, as candidates rehash political promises while they campaign across the state’s 18 local councils.

Although there are 17 candidates, incumbent Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and former Deputy Governor Agboola Ajayi of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are the clear frontrunners.

The other candidates include Ajibola Falaiye (Accord), Omolere Akinuli (AA), Oluwaseyi Ajayi (AAC), Olatunji Popoola (APGA), Isaac Ogunfeyimi (APM), Babatunde Fadoju (APP), Adeyemi Nejo (ADC), Sola Ebiseni (LP), Olugbenga Edema (NNPP), and Babatunde Alli (PRP)

The others are Ayodeji Akinnodi (ADP), Bamidele Akingboye (SDP), Otitoloju Akinmurele (YPP), Kehinde Adegoke (YPP), and Abbas Mimiko (ZLP).

The Independent National Electoral Commission says 2,053,061 voters have been registered for the poll. The latest figure includes the 58,708 new voters added during the continuous voter registration exercise. According to INEC, 3,132 voters transferred their registrations into the state, while 123 voters transferred out.

The campaigns have been lacklustre, with little public enthusiasm evident despite the hardships the state’s residents are going through, like the rest of Nigeria, due to the country’s worst economic crisis in many decades.

The lack of enthusiasm has also been attributed to the zoning arrangement that produced the candidates of two leading candidates from the same senatorial district – Ondo South. The arrangement has practically lowered the standards of politicking Ondo State is known for and has particularly made the election less competitive.

Televised debate

A televised election debate, held on Sunday, 3 November, between the APC and PDP candidates, allowed voters to assess the candidates. The brotherly attitude they showed to each other as they discussed the issues strengthened the perception of the contest as a local derby.

The death of former Governor Rotimi Akeredolu last December and the emergence of his estranged deputy, Mr Aiyedatiwa, as his successor changed the face of the contest within the ruling party and in the state.

The opposition parties campaigned as if nothing was at stake; leaving the PDP candidate as the only major force against the ruling party.

With the government’s funds and powers at his disposal, Mr Aiyedatiwa is everywhere in the news. His campaign billboards are everywhere on the streets and highways in the state, and his messages are on radio and television. His campaign train visited communities across the local government areas, welcomed with crowd attendance.

Mr Aiyedatiwa became the incumbent after serving as deputy to Mr Akeredolu who died while in office. His victory in the battles to remove him from the former office prepared him for this election. Many predicted that he would fail at the primaries. The way he batted aside the challenge of other APC aspirants to win the governorship ticket showed that his opponents underrated him.

His travails in the hands of Mr Akeredolu’s “cabals” aroused the sympathy of many residents across party lines. He will hope the sympathy translates to votes on Saturday.

Mr Aiyedatiwa also tried to endear himself to the people by executing projects across the state despite what many believe to be the failure of the APC government at the centre.

His road projects, mostly concentrated in Akure, the state capital, are slow but ongoing. Some residents told this reporter they prayed the projects would not be abandoned after the election.

“If he doesn’t win the election, that may be the end of the road projects,” Femi Aina, who lives along Oda Road in Akure, said. “If he wins, he may also become complacent and not take the work seriously.”

Some other residents described his efforts so far as people-friendly. A video of a look-alike of the governor caught on camera in domestic violence was circulated to dent his image, but it made no serious impact.

His approval of N73,000 as the state’s minimum wage also made workers jubilant, even though some criticised the delay of the approval until close to the election.

“It is a tactical delay for election reasons,” Bode Babatope, a civil servant, noted. “They made the promise long ago, but they kept shifting the payment date every time.”

Some say the minimum wage for the state should be higher than what the government approved, especially because the state produces oil and gets revenue from it. In contrast, Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde approved N80,000 as the state’s minimum wage despite Oyo not being an oil-producing state.

Workers eagerly await the payment of the new minimum wage, which is slightly higher than what was approved at the negotiation in Abuja. Many believe this would significantly boost the governor’s chances.

Banji Okunomo, the spokesperson for the Aiyedatiwa Campaign Committee, said the governor reached out to all groups in the state and campaigned vigorously.

“Only the APC candidate is actually campaigning. The opposition parties are not doing anything; all they do is make frivolous allegations.”

Many party loyalists of the APC are also counting on the support of the APC-led federal government. Many have said that if what happened in Edo is any guide, the Ondo poll may be a walk-over.

Barring extraordinary developments in the coming days, the governor seems to be on track to extending his tenancy at the Alagbaka Government House.

Benji Oloye, the Bashorun of Owo Kingdom, said there’s no viable opposition to the ruling party.

“I don’t see any viable opposition from the PDP. The likes of former Governor Olusegun Mimiko, Ebenezer Alabi and Lad Ojomo leaving the party to APC and other parties have shown that PDP is in disarray and not ready for victory,” he said.

He said the PDP governorship candidate Agboola Ajayi did not do enough to unite the party, saying aside from the leaders who left, some aspirants who contested the primary with him had also pitched tents with other parties.

However, Mr Agboola remains a threat to Mr Aiyedatiwa’s election. His enviable political credentials set him above all other contenders. He was deputy governor to Mr Akeredolu in the late governor’s first tenure. After their rift, he contested against his boss in the 2020 election. His doggedness earned him the respect of even his political opponents.

After sojourning in the ZLP in the last polls, where he performed poorly, he has wormed his way back to the PDP, which offered him its platform to contest this election.

The PDP state governors are showing great support for the candidate with Governors Seyi Makonde of Oyo and Ademola Adeleke of Osun coordinating their efforts.

As governor, Mr Ajayi promised to improve education, healthcare, and infrastructure. He also promised to fight the ocean surge in Aiyetoro and drive it backwards by two kilometres.

The PDP is also plagued by disunity at the centre, just as it has badly been depleted by the exodus of some top chieftains of the party at the state level.

The spokesperson for the PDP, Kennedy Peretei, said the people of the state hold the ruling APC responsible for their suffering. He said those thinking the election would be a walk-over for the APC had slipped into a “panic mode” following backlashes from the people on the field as they campaigned.

He said even the N73,000 minimum wage promise is almost becoming a mirage as the governor was not making efforts to pay the workers.

Mr Peretei believes that the voting patterns of the electorate will be a function of their desire to change their economic fortunes using the ballot.

Other candidates

NNPP

Olugbenga Edema of the NNPP showed sparks at the beginning of the campaigns. He left the APC over the controversy about its primaries.

A former Chief Executive Officer of the Ondo State Oil Producing Areas Development Commission (OSOPADEC), his major drawback is the low level of acceptance of the NNPP in the state. Residents said he brought vibrancy, which could benefit it in the future even if it fails to win this election.

Mr Edema said the NNPP had been engaging the people on the streets, house-to-house, and across the 18 local government areas. “Our campaign style is more than dancing on the podiums; we are everywhere, in the state, engaging the people. The APC’s style of campaign has no feedback mechanisms.

However, his entrance has torn the party into factions and become his biggest weakness. A suit is asking the federal high court in Akure to determine his eligibility as the party’s candidate. Mr Edema’s lawyer expressed concern over his inability to campaign effectively due to the court case.

SDP

Bamidele Akingboye is the Social Democratic Party candidate. A chartered accountant and certified fraud examiner, the candidate has raised concerns over the state’s security and wants to reorganise the security architecture to curtail kidnapping and other violent crimes.

He also plans to empower citizens, stir interest in skill-based activities, and address economic and social factors contributing to crime.

A former governorship aspirant in the PDP, Mr Akingboye wants to impress in this election by leveraging the goodwill his party enjoys in the South-west and especially in Ondo State. His achievements in the business world serve him well as someone who could bring development to the people. His campaigns, however, need to hype these facts to win the attention of the voting populace.

Labour Party

Sola Ebiseni is flying the flag of the Labour Party. Although the LP once ruled Ondo State through Mr Mimiko, it has lost its flavour since Mr Mimiko left. Mr Ebiseni ran in the PDP primaries and left the party following his defeat.

Mr Ebiseni, a chieftain of Afenifere and former commissioner in the state, wants to test his popularity in the election. However, his campaign has not been impressive.

Mr Ebiseni protested against exclusion from the governorship debate, accusing Channels TV, the organisers, of bias. Although he also hails from the southern senatorial district, his impact has been clouded by the dominance of the APC and the PDP.

ZLP

Abbas Mimiko, the younger brother of former Governor Olusegun Mimiko, is the candidate of the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP). The name Mimiko is recognised, but former governor Mimiko is hobnobbing with the APC, and his younger brother does not have the political capital to create any upsets in the election.

In an interview, candidate Mimiko, a psychiatrist, said he has never held any public office and does not consider himself a politician. He practised medicine in the US for years before returning to Nigeria. He said he has the requisite education to govern Ondo State. But the people have seen very little of him.