Pollster with near-perfect record selects winner in Harris vs. Trump election

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Historian Allan Lichtman predicts a win for Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race
Lichtman’s forecasting model, the "13 Keys to the White House," has a strong accuracy record, missing only once in ten elections
Despite fluctuating poll numbers, Lichtman remains steadfast in his forecast, dismissing the impact of surprises
Facing unprecedented hostility over his prediction, Lichtman voiced concerns about the stability of American democracy and global democratic decline

Renowned historian and election forecaster Allan Lichtman has made waves with his latest prediction, foreseeing a victory for Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris.

Historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman.

Lichtman, whose prediction track record includes nine correct forecasts out of the last ten elections, remains confident in his prediction that will see Republican Donald Trump lose the 2024 United States presidential race.

In an interview with CNN, Lichtman expressed certainty that Harris would prevail on election day.

He acknowledged that while Harris's lead in battleground states has been fluctuating, this has not swayed his forecast.

Known for his sharp accuracy in calling presidential races, Lichtman’s only misstep came in 2000, when he predicted Democrat Al Gore would win the presidency, a race that saw George W. Bush eventually prevail.

According to Lichtman, polls and late-breaking events that could influence voters' opinions have little effect on his tried-and-tested approach.

Reflecting on his 2016 prediction, he pointed out that despite Trump's controversial remarks about women, which surfaced just weeks before the election, he did not alter his forecast.

"Nothing has changed the biggest myth in American politics, is the so-called October surprise. I've always issued my predictions before then and never changed them. In 2016 for example, we had the biggest October surprise Donald Trump on Tate bragging, about sexually assaulting women and a lot of women coming out of the saying, yeah, he did that to me, even Republicans were saying he was finished. I did not change my prediction of a Trump win, which you can imagine did not make me very popular," he said.

Why is Lichtman worried about the 2024 polls

The historian revealed the intense backlash he’s received this election cycle, noting that his prediction of a Harris victory has triggered significant hostility.

"I have never experienced the kind of hate I've had heaped on me this time, which has made me very nervous. My family's been compromised. We've had a notify the police to fortify our home, it's been terribly upsetting," Lichtman shared.

While he stands by his prediction, Lichtman expressed profound concerns about the health of American democracy.

Citing what he calls a global trend of democratic decline, Lichtman voiced his worries about the US political climate:

"Unfortunately, the trend of this century has been the decline of democracy all over the world and I'm worried about our country," he added.

How Lichtman’s prediction system works

Lichtman’s prediction model, known as the "13 Keys to the White House," evaluates the political landscape through a set of true-or-false statements, each representing a factor that could affect the election outcome.

If six or more of these keys are false, the opposing party is likely to win.

This approach has consistently guided his accurate predictions, making Lichtman a respected figure in election forecasting.

"I don't have a crystal ball, I'm not Speaker Mike Johnson who thinks he has a pipeline to the Almighty, my system is based on history, it's very robust, but it's always possible, you can't know it in advance that there'd be something so cataclysmic and so unprecedented to break the pattern of history," Lichtman said