President Tinubu, it is time to do the heavy lifting, By Wole Oni

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu

President Tinubu must prioritise the fight against corruption. Corruption is the root cause of almost all the problems we are currently facing in the country. Let no one be deceived by the current rate of corruption in the country. I do not believe we can make much progress as a country at this rate. Countries like Hong Kong and China are perfect examples of countries that fought corruption genuinely and prevailed, and their societies are better for it.

COVID-19, post-COVID economic depression, the war in Ukraine and, recently, the war between Israel and Hamas, are all events that have, no doubt, made the last half a decade very tumultuous for most countries of the world.

Nigeria has had its fair share of this misfortune; however, ours has been exacerbated by poor leadership decisions at home.

By May 2023 when President Buhari was leaving office after eight years in the saddle, petrol was selling at N195 and the exchange rate was N750 to a $1. Even at that, many Nigerians were practically celebrating the end of what they termed as a calamitous government.

Insecurity had gone from bad to worse, inflation had spiralled out of control, and unemployment was at an all-time high.

In the last one year and a few months of President Tinubu, whilst the macroeconomic indices of the country seem to have improved significantly, the microeconomic reality of majority of the people has worsened considerably.

Petrol now sells for between N600 and N700 a litre, an increase of about 250 per cent from the N195/litre as of May 2023. The naira now exchanges at N1620/$1 as against N750/$1 when President Buhari was leaving office, which is like a 200 per cent devaluation.

To put this in a better perspective, petrol price was N65 in 2008 and it took 15 years to move to N195 in 2023. However, in the one year of President Tinubu’s administration, he moved the price from N195 to N680 in one fell swoop!

The two knee-jerk decisions of petrol subsidy removal and devaluation of the naira are where 90 per cent of all our current challenges emanate from.

In my opinion, the President went for the easiest options that needed little or no work, but were just  pronouncements (“subsidy is gone”) to be made and that has been it. The rest of the work and the trouble needed for the policies to work would be borne by the citizens. Very easy to do, just pass the burden to the citizens.

All other previous governments could have just done the same, except that they cared about the consequences of their actions on the welfare of the people, as much as they cared about the macroeconomic indices of the country. They knew that the two are not mutually exclusive.

It seems Mr President’s preferred solutions to the current hardship are to sprinkle acts of tokenism to Nigerians, like sharing rice, giving “N25,000 to five million households” (which we are yet to confirm this), promising loans to different groups, providing CNG buses that haven’t arrived one year after they were promised, etc..

Truth be told, for things to return back to where they were pre-May 2023 when President Tinubu took over power, he has to revisit the ill-timed and poorly implemented policies of instant subsidy removal and floating of the naira.

Mr Taiwo Oyedele, the chairman of the presidential committee on fiscal policy and tax reforms had asked the government to adopt N800 per dollar as the exchange rate for customs duty import tariffs. He had also voiced his opinion that the naira should ideally be pegged at between N750 and N800 to the dollar, but somehow President Tinubu has refused to heed this advice that is coming from his own government.

The two policies need a solid team of experts, both in the private and public sector plus all critical stakeholders, coming together to discuss the best ways to implement these policies to avoid this level of despondency amongst citizens.

Mr President also needs to get down to the heavy lifting part of his job.

Why is Nigeria still hovering at an oil production level of between 1.3 million/1.4 million barrels a day more than a year after his administration took over?

Under President Jonathan, Nigeria was conveniently doing 2.2 million barrels per day. If we compare what we were producing then with what we have now, there is about almost a million barrels a day difference, and this deficit is lost to crude oil theft.

At $80 a barrel, we are talking about $80 million lost daily to crude oil theft, which could amount to about $2 billion monthly and some $24 billion (N38 trillion at N1,600 to the dollar) annually. This figure is way above our total budget for 2024. If we had $24 billion, Nigeria could afford to peg the dollar to naira exchange rate at N500 and could even afford a subsidy on petrol easily.

So why has the government not gone the route of tackling oil theft?

Oil is not what you pack into one or two Ghana-must-go bags and run away with. For anyone or group to successfully steal oil from the shores of any nation, there must be some good level of collaboration with a number of state actors. Oil is moved in large vessels and there’s no way a ship can come into your territorial waters without agencies of government signing off for it to berth and sail.

Perhaps Dangote’s revelation of refineries in Malta and Nigerian crude finding its way there, is enough to direct our attention to where the sabotage may be coming from.

My question is, if we are losing so much from oil theft, why isn’t the government of President Tinubu facing this headlong? Or is this one of the president’s ways of opting for the easy way out? After all, it is easier to yank subsidies on petrol and let the masses bear the burden than face a well-entrenched cabal of oil thieves.

Furthermore, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, the chairman of the presidential committee on fiscal policy and tax reforms had asked the government to adopt N800 per dollar as the exchange rate for customs duty import tariffs. He had also voiced his opinion that the naira should ideally be pegged at between N750 and N800 to the dollar, but somehow President Tinubu has refused to heed this advice that is coming from his own government.

Is it that the president always likes the easy way out, even if the masses have to be sacrificed?

If he pegged the dollar at N800, as suggested, if we earn, say, $1 billion from oil, that will mean only a revenue of N800 billion coming into government coffers. However at N1620 to the dollar, that means N1.6 trillion coming into government’s coffers!

The President should tackle crude theft heads on. Crude oil is not stolen by ghosts. It is stolen by Nigerians in collaboration with some highly placed state actors. So, let the government go after them. I know that it is easier to yank subsidies off the masses but that is not what quality leadership is about. President Tinubu should do the heavy lifting now and tackle the crude oil thieves.

So, for a government eager to implement its N33 trillion 2024 budget, I am sure the naira floating at N1,600 to the dollar might not be a bother to her, but at what and at whose expense? Who bears the burden of such a policy? The same masses that have been loaded with the burden of petrol subsidy removal?

We are largely an import driven country, and it is a problem that cannot be solved overnight. However, before we correct the national imbalances, Nigerians have to exist. People buying medication for high blood pressure, diabetes and all sorts of ailments have had to grapple with the hike in prices of critical medication due to the massive depreciation of the naira. Most of the fish we eat in the country are imported; equipment, machinery for production, medical equipment, computers, etc. are all imported and their prices are largely dependent on the naira/dollar exchange rate.

I can go on and on about how grim the situation is but it will be a waste of everyone’s time. Rather, let’s talk about solutions.

Whilst I cannot arrogate to myself the total knowledge of the way out of this quagmire, I have proposed a few solutions below. If the President or anyone close to him finds them helpful, they can use them or come up with something better. What is obvious to all is that we cannot continue like this.

1. The President should reduce the price of petrol to between N400 and N500 per litre;

2. The government should take the advice of its committee on fiscal policy reforms and adopt the N800 to the dollar exchange rate;

3. The President should tackle crude theft heads on. Crude oil is not stolen by ghosts. It is stolen by Nigerians in collaboration with some highly placed state actors. So, let the government go after them. I know that it is easier to yank subsidies off the masses but that is not what quality leadership is about. President Tinubu should do the heavy lifting now and tackle the crude oil thieves.

4. Invite mercenaries to join the Nigerian military in tackling insecurity in the North. We can’t have a war continue for almost two decades; it is draining the nation. All the money that ought to go into providing critical support for the citizens is continuously spent on fighting this near endless war.

5. Last, but not the least, President Tinubu must prioritise the fight against corruption. Corruption is the root cause of almost all the problems we are currently facing in the country. Let no one be deceived by the current rate of corruption in the country. I do not believe we can make much progress as a country at this rate. Countries like Hong Kong and China are perfect examples of countries that fought corruption genuinely and prevailed, and their societies are better for it.

I wish the President well as he begins the heavy lifting part of his job. I remember he asked that we should not pity him because he asked for the job.

You have your wish now sir; we do not pity you.

Wole Oni is a communications strategist with years of experience in TV and digital media management. He writes from Abuja, Nigeria.