Primary, Alternate, Contingency And Emergency (P.A.C.E.)

In the U.S. Marine Corps, PACE is an acronym that stands for Primary, Alternate, Contingency, and Emergency. It is a communications planning methodology used to ensure there are multiple ways to maintain communication in different situations including healthcare, governance, and environmental emergencies.

The primary method of communication is the most preferred and reliable. The alternate is the backup to the primary method activated if the primary fails. Contingency is a third option, less preferred, but still functional if both primary and alternate fail and the last resort emergency, is only used in dire situations when all other methods fail.

This approach ensures that communication is maintained even under adverse conditions, which is critical in military operations. The PACE model, while primarily a military communication strategy, can be adapted as a framework for governance and planning in Nigeria to improve resilience and adaptability in addressing key challenges.

In the 2024 Netflix original movie Rebel Ridge, a marine corps veteran employs the PACE model to address systemic injustice in America with useful lessons and takeaways that one can explore. The protagonist finds himself in direct conflict with corrupt and unjust systems including law enforcement and the judiciary when the money he made from the sale of his car was confiscated illegally by the police officers who ran into him. He needed money to bail his cousin who was arrested, detained, and eventually killed.

The protagonist employs the PACE model to confront this injustice using force where required to exact violence and revenge with dire consequences. The movie explores how individuals or communities react to injustice, showing that while it may seem justified, violence often leads to more chaos and suffering.
Finally, the protagonist faces a survival and moral dilemma challenging viewers to consider the ethical consequences of their decisions, especially when fighting against corrupt systems. It suggests that individuals and societies need to be proactive in addressing inequalities rather than turning a blind eye and the need to stand up for one’s rights and beliefs, even in dangerous or high-stakes situations.

PACE Model in Systems
The primary strategy for governance and the economy should ideally focus on existing institutions and political systems, like democratic governance, constitutional rule, and centralized planning. Government relies on established ministries, agencies, and national development plans to implement policies. The primary strategy for Nigeria’s economic growth involves oil and gas, the country’s main revenue source, alongside agricultural development, and the emerging tech sector.

The alternate strategy which is the backup considering the failure and disruptions in our central systems occasioned by political instability, fluctuating oil and gas earnings, corruption and insecurity could involve strengthening local government authorities, decentralization, diversification, or enhancing judicial and electoral reforms to stabilize governance.

Given the volatility of the oil market, an alternate economic strategy might focus on sectors like renewable energy, solid minerals, and the digital economy to diversify income streams. Policies could also promote regional trade partnerships and industrial growth beyond oil.
The contingency and less preferred but viable options in cases of significant governance breakdowns or national crises, might involve external arbitration or mediation, such as engaging regional bodies like the African Union or the Economic Community of West African States. Other measures could include implementing special committees or international support to rebuild governance.

If both primary and alternate options fail, contingency options could include massive government intervention in social programs or a shift toward a more protectionist economic stance to secure essential industries and mitigate unemployment, rising food costs or inflation spikes.

The emergency and last resort in the worst-case scenario, where governance collapses for example due to political unrest or extreme corruption, could involve martial law, states of emergency, or international peacekeeping efforts to restore order. If Nigeria’s economy were to completely falter due to global shocks or domestic failure, emergency strategies would involve international bailouts or emergency aid from institutions like the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, or regional partners to prevent collapse.

PACE in Nigeria’s Context
Nigeria is experiencing various political, economic, and environmental challenges, such as insurgency, corruption, inflation, flooding, and a lingering food crisis. A PACE approach could ensure multiple pathways exist to uphold democracy, governance, and security as well as better living standards for the people. Nigeria’s heavy reliance on oil makes it vulnerable to external shocks (like oil price crashes). By applying PACE, Nigeria could strengthen economic diversification efforts and ensure contingency and emergency mechanisms to stabilize the country in times of crisis.

This adaptive framework can ensure that Nigeria has robust plans in place for governance, economic sustainability, and unpredictable environmental situations like the catastrophic flooding in Maiduguri, Borno State. Triggered by heavy rainfall and the overflow of the Alau Dam, the flood has displaced over a million people, destroyed homes, and submerged critical infrastructure. Many areas, including key roads, schools, and markets, have been severely impacted. Tragically, at least thirty people have lost their lives, and hundreds of thousands of households have been affected.

The flood has exacerbated an already dire humanitarian situation, as many residents were already vulnerable due to ongoing conflicts in the region. The destruction of water and sanitation systems has raised concerns about disease outbreaks such as cholera. While relief efforts to restore normalcy are ongoing, with the National Emergency Management Agency coordinating rescue operations, and the UN and other international organizations providing urgent support in the form of food, water, and shelter, the magnitude of the disaster means that the Nigerian government needs to be more proactive to forestall similar environmental disasters in the future by planning for long-term infrastructural improvements.

E for Emergency
Nigeria needs to urgently develop or if already existing activate an emergency plan to deal with the climate change crises currently plaguing the nation. A proactive approach is needed to address the significant climate change challenges that are impacting its environment, economy, and public health.

The country has seen increased average temperatures over the years, leading to heatwaves and changing weather patterns. This can exacerbate drought conditions, particularly in the north, threatening agriculture, and water supplies. Due to more intense and unpredictable rainfall, flooding has become more frequent, especially in coastal and urban areas. Cities like Lagos and Maiduguri have experienced destructive floods, damaging infrastructure, displacing people, and causing economic losses.

The north is also experiencing significant desertification due to prolonged droughts, deforestation, and overgrazing leading to loss of arable land, increased food insecurity, forced migration and worsening conflicts over resources. Rising sea levels are eroding Nigeria’s coastal areas, threatening cities, livelihoods, and vital ecosystems in the Niger Delta. The loss of land due to erosion could displace millions of people living along the coast.

Additionally, changes in rainfall patterns, drought, and flooding are affecting agricultural productivity. Staple crops like maize, cassava, and yam are under threat, potentially exacerbating food insecurity in a country already struggling with high rates of hunger. Climate change is increasing the prevalence of diseases like malaria and cholera, which thrive in warmer temperatures and areas affected by floods. Poor air quality due to heat and pollution also contributes to respiratory issues.

Addressing these challenges require emergency and sustained investments in sustainable development, climate-resilient infrastructure, and better disaster management systems, alongside global efforts to mitigate climate change impacts by the Ministry of Environment and National Commission on Climate Change. Otherwise, when there is no effective plan by government to address such perennial environmental occurrences, ordinary citizens pay the ultimate price with loss of lives and property and may then be forced to act.