Revealed: How Nigeria could miss out on AFCON 2025 qualification despite walkover vs Libya

• The Confederation of African Football (CAF) has given its verdict on the botched Libya vs Nigeria match
• CAF awarded the Super Eagles three points and three goals and fined the Libyan Federation USD 50,000
• Nigeria extended their lead in Group D and now have 10 points but have not yet secured qualification

The Super Eagles of Nigeria have moved inches closer to qualifying for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations after CAF's verdict favoured them, but it is not done yet.

Nigeria was scheduled to face the Mediterranean Knights at the Martyrs of February Stadium on October 14, but the match was cancelled after the airport hostage saga.

Super Eagles captain William Troost-Ekong looks dejected after Nigeria lost AFCON 2023 final to Ivory Coast. Photo by Daniel Beloumo Olomo.
Source: Getty Images

As noted by The Athletic, CAF took the time to investigate the situation and held a hearing at its general assembly in Addis Ababa before awarding Nigeria three points and three goals and fined the Libyans USD 50,000.

The Eagles now have 10 points from a possible 12 after four games, with West African neighbours Benin Republic in second place with six points, Rwanda in third with five points and Libya bottom of the group with a point.

How Nigeria could miss AFCON 2025

Nigeria are four points clear at the top of Group D and only need a point to be guaranteed at least a second-place finish, which is the minimum requirement for automatic qualification.

However, it is not cast in stone yet, and even though the chances of missing out are slim, there is a mathematically possible scenario where the green-white-green flag will not fly in Morocco next year.

The Super Eagles have two games left: an away trip to Benin Republic, which play their home games in Ivory Coast, on matchday five and a home game against Rwanda at the Godswill Akpabio Stadium in Uyo on the final matchday.

If Nigeria loses both games and both sides go on to beat Libya in their other games, Benin and Rwanda will have 12 and 11 points each, and the Eagles' 10 points will only be enough to finish third.

The three-time African champions beat Benin Republic 3-0 in Uyo and drew 0-0 against Rwanda at the Amahoro Stadium in Kigali in the first legs of the two games.

As noted by African News, if this happens, it will be the first time since the 2017 edition that the Eagles will miss out, having also missed the 2012 and 2015 editions in recent times.

Confirmed AFCON 2025 participants

Legit.ng analysed the eight countries that have qualified for AFCON 2025 after the fourth round of games in the qualifiers was completed during the October international break.

Five of these countries have picked up the maximum 12 points, including record winners Egypt, host country Morocco and 2023 semifinalists DR Congo.

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Source: Legit.ng