Six of 26 poorest nations likely to progress by 2050—World Bank

Only six of the world’s 26 poorest countries are projected to reach middle-income status by 2050, the World Bank said in a new analysis. The rest are likely to remain in poverty unless they significantly boost their economic growth rates.

The findings, part of the World Bank’s forthcoming “Global Economic Prospects” report to be published on Jan. 14, 2025, highlighted that these nations account for more than 40 per cent of the population living on less than $2.15 a day.

The findings were shared via a statement to The PUNCH on Thursday, with the global lender citing stalled progress due to conflict, economic crises, and sluggish growth.

“Barring a sustained improvement in growth rates, only six of today’s low-income countries are likely to achieve middle-income status by 2050,” the analysis found.

The World Bank said its analysis is the first to systematically examine the progress of today’s low-income countries over the first 25 years of this century and their prospects for attaining middle-income status over the next 25 years.

The report noted that 22 of these nations are in Sub-Saharan Africa and face greater constraints than their predecessors.

“Seventeen of these countries are affected by conflict or fragility, with lethality rates 20 times higher than in other developing economies,” the World Bank said.

“Nearly all of them are highly vulnerable to climate change, and many are struggling with debt. “Most are either in debt distress or at high risk of it,” the report added.

The analysis also pointed out that half of these countries are landlocked and bordered by other poor nations, limiting their potential to grow through trade. However, the report noted that these countries possess substantial natural advantages that could drive growth.

The lender highlighted their abundant mineral resources, noting that they hold over 60 per cent of the world’s known reserves of cobalt and 50 per cent of graphite—metals critical for renewable energy technologies. Additionally, their solar energy potential is among the highest in the world.

“Working-age populations are rapidly expanding in these countries even as they shrink almost everywhere else,” the World Bank said, describing this demographic trend as a potential driver of economic growth.

Over the past 25 years, 39 of 63 low-income countries—including India, Indonesia, and Bangladesh—advanced to middle-income status, defined as an annual per capita income above $1,145 by 2023.

However, the remaining nations, joined by South Sudan and Syria in the 2010s, have stagnated. Their inflation-adjusted GDP per capita grew by less than 0.1 per cent annually over the past 15 years.

The financier warned that, without sustained improvements in growth rates, most of these countries will remain stuck in poverty, posing a challenge to global efforts to end extreme poverty.

The World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics, Indermit Gill, said, “The next 25 years are a critical window of opportunity for the poorest countries—and the rest of the world has a vital stake in helping them get out of poverty.

“Today’s poor countries face a tougher slog than their predecessors: over the past 15 years, they’ve seen practically no growth in per capita incomes.

“Yet the record in East, Southeast, and South Asia shows that with a little help from abroad and better policies at home, even countries ravaged by war and instability can create the conditions for sustained economic progress.”

The World Bank Group’s Deputy Chief Economist, Ayhan Kose, added, “The global battle to end extreme poverty will not be won until it is won in the 26 poorest countries.

“Today, these countries aren’t getting the attention they deserve, given the magnitude of their challenges. Many of them are coping with the triple harm of conflict, climate change, and debt distress.

“National policymakers and the global community should act urgently to enable these countries to make the progress necessary for them to join the ranks of middle-income countries.”

To climb the income ladder over the next 25 years, the World Bank advised low-income countries to take inspiration from those that managed to leap to middle-income status in earlier decades.

The analysis noted, “Girded by political stability and growth-supporting policies, about half of those countries achieved sustained growth accelerations—long periods of robust economic expansion—that propelled them out of low-income status.

“These growth spells tended to follow reforms that channeled public and private resources into investment and improved the business environment.”