Smoking while off-loading petrol in the Middle East, By Owei Lakemfa

Assassinated Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh.

If these actions escalate, there is likely to be a regional war in the Middle East. One that will pitch Israel and its European and American partners against Iran and its allies. Such war will immediately suck in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Anwar Allah – Houthis in Yemen, the Syrian military, Hamas and possibly, Fattah in the Palestine.

Heart surgeon, Masoud Pezeshkian, was sworn-in as President of Iran on Tuesday, 30 July. His primary concern seemed to be about lifting the unilateral sanctions the United States (US) had imposed on his country. Reviving the economy is fundamental for the citizenry and the sure way of winning their hearts.

However, he would have been forced to have a change of heart within 24 hours. The first major challenge he is faced with now is how to react to Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh. The latter had accepted Iran’s invitation to attend his swearing-in ceremony. At the occasion, Haniyeh, who had been well received, flashed the victory sign. But the very next day, Israel assassinated him in Tehran.

Unless Israel makes propitiation, President Pezeshkian would have no choice but to order a retaliation. Haniyeh had been his guest and he had the duty to protect him. Also, Israel, by the assassination, had violated Iran’s sovereignty. On both scores, Iran seems duty-bound to defend its honour.

A similar scenario had played out after Israel attacked the Iranian Embassy in Damascus on 1 April. It killed 16 persons, including Iranian Generals Mohammed Reza Zahedi and Mohammed Hadi Rahimi. On 13 and 14 April, Iran sent armed drones, ballistic and cruise missiles into Israel. On that occasion, it deliberately used slow missiles that got to Israel in five hours, thereby giving the latter and its allies enough time to shoot almost all of them down. This time, it remains to be seen whether Iran would adopt a similar method, or use its hypersonic missile, which can hit Israel within 17 minutes.

Also, by killing Haniyeh, Israel has deliberately wrecked the peace process in Gaza. The US, Israel’s chief guarantor, rather than be sympathetic, told the United Nations Security Council it was not sure about Haniyeh’s assassination, and that the killing would not stop the peace process.

Haniyeh lived in Qatar, a tiny, rich and quite sensible country that has been at the heart of the ongoing peace negotiations between Israel and Hamas. It was a clearly frustrated Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani who, in reaction to Haniyeh’s assassination, wrote: “Political assassinations and continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue, lead us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?”

But the reality is that the assassination would hinder the peace process and make it much more difficult. This is partly because Haniyeh was neither an armed combatant nor was he given to the idea of destroying Israel. I had wondered how he was able to survive in the Hamas leadership, given the fact that he did not hide his preference for a two-state solution in which Israel and Palestine would live peacefully within secured borders. Despite his parents having been expelled from their ancestral homes by Israel, his being born and growing up in the Shati refugee camp, his imprisonment thrice by Israel and expulsion to Lebanon, he still held to the basic principles of peace for all in the Middle East. This year, three of his sons and three grandchildren were killed in Gaza in an Israeli air strike. Despite his travails and personal tragedies, he insisted that negotiations and reconciliation were the proper route to take in the Middle East. The murder of such a moderate can only give rise to more militant figures in the region.

Haniyeh lived in Qatar, a tiny, rich and quite sensible country that has been at the heart of the ongoing peace negotiations between Israel and Hamas. It was a clearly frustrated Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani who, in reaction to Haniyeh’s assassination, wrote: “Political assassinations and continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue, lead us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?”

The assassination is coming just days after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned from a triumphant visit to the US. There, the American Congress opened its hallowed chambers to him. As American parliamentarians lousily applauded every sentence of Netanyahu, sometimes even when he was midway, I wondered if they realised that they disgraced their country and demeaned its democratic credentials by opening their parliamentary doors to controversial Netanyahu.

In an escalation, the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights in Syria has also been attacked, allegedly by Hamas. Earlier, on 19 July, a drone by the Houthis in Yemen struck Tel Aviv, killing a man. The next day, Israel attacked the Yemeni port of Hodeida, allegedly causing a over $20 million damage.

Now, the stage is set for a regional war in the Middle East. On the eve of the assassination, the US and the United Kingdom were rushing troops to the region. On that day, three US ships, USS Wasp, USS Oak Hill and USS New York, were streaming towards Lebanon with 2,200 soldiers on board. US Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin, in acknowledging that his country was sending those ships said: “If Israel is attacked, yes, we will help Israel defend itself. We’ve been clear about that from the very beginning.” On its part, the UK already has its Royal Navy and Royal Air Force operating in the region. Perhaps, buoyed by these actions and steps, Israel, that day, attacked Beirut, the Lebanese capital.

The US, since its military defeat in Vietnam, has been careful about committing its citizens to battle. Its involvement in the Libyan War was from the air. Yes, it had troops in the Iraqi and Afghan wars, but these might have seemed to be easy wars. Despite this, it relied heavily on the use of mercenaries, especially of the Blackwater company which, due to its atrocities against civilian populations, changed its name, first to Xe, and now, Academi.

If these actions escalate, there is likely to be a regional war in the Middle East. One that will pitch Israel and its European and American partners against Iran and its allies. Such war will immediately suck in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Anwar Allah – Houthis in Yemen, the Syrian military, Hamas and possibly, Fattah in the Palestine.

However, there is the question of whether Europe, on whose soil the war in Ukraine is being fought, would want to open a second front in the Middle East. Except for mercenaries, they do not have boots on the ground in Ukraine; would they send troops to fight on the side of Israel? I doubt it.

The US, since its military defeat in Vietnam, has been careful about committing its citizens to battle. Its involvement in the Libyan War was from the air. Yes, it had troops in the Iraqi and Afghan wars, but these might have seemed to be easy wars. Despite this, it relied heavily on the use of mercenaries, especially of the Blackwater company which, due to its atrocities against civilian populations, changed its name, first to Xe, and now, Academi.

One country that thought it could start a war because it had American and NATO backing, was Georgia. But neither the US nor Europe was willing to commit their troops to fighting the Russians, so the Georgian War, which began on 7 August, 2008, lasted just nine days. I doubt if they would ever send troops to fight in the Ukrainian war, as French President Emmanuel Macron once canvassed.

Israel might just find that in the event of a regional war, NATO would not send troops to fight on its side. Israel is like an animal skin drum, beating too loudly; it may just go burst.

Owei Lakemfa, a former secretary general of African workers, is a human rights activist, journalist and author.