Stormy UK weather likely to continue for the rest of winter

Storm Éowyn was one of the most exceptional storms of the decade according to the Met Office with 100mph (160km/h) winds recorded in Scotland.

The fifth named storm of the season brought widespread disruption and damage, and sadly two deaths.

Strong winds and heavy rain continued into the start of the week as Storm Herminia rolled through.

But as we head into February and the last month of winter, what is the long-range forecast?

Well we are probably going to have to be ready for further stormy weather at times.

Since the Met Office started naming storms in 2015 the most active season was in 2023/24 with 12, when we reached the letter L - for Lilian - in the alphabet of named storms.

The year before that, there were only two.

With so much natural variability in our weather, the number of named storms we experience each year is influenced by other meteorological patterns around the world and so it is difficult to directly compare storminess to previous years.

Winter is defined in meteorology as December, January and February.

Up until now we have had a real mix of unsettled weather with five named storms but we also had a significant cold snap in early January.

With -18.9C recorded in Altnaharra, Highland on 11 January it was the coldest night in the UK for 15 years.

Widespread snow and ice caused disruption across the UK.

However, long-range weather forecasts are hinting at the opposite for the rest of winter.

An active jet stream - the fast moving air high in the atmosphere - appears to be the dominant driver for weather conditions and this is likely to bring frequent low pressure systems across north-west Europe.

In its three-month forecast, the Met Office suggests that the chances of impacts from wet and windy weather is increased compared to normal, particularly throughout February.

It also says "the increased risk of storms gives rise to a greater risk of 'storm clustering', with consecutive events affecting the UK in quick succession".

DTN, the forecast provider for BBC Weather, also suggests that "risks of disruptive wind events are likely to be higher, especially during February".

The other result of a more active jet stream is that winds and the source of our air is likely to be from the south-west.

Temperatures are therefore likely to be above average overall when taken across the whole month.

That is not to say there won't be some colder interludes. There could be.

But "no sustained or widespread cold spells are expected", according to DTN.

Due to that cold spell in January, the monthly mean temperature has been slightly below normal for this time of year.

However, December was warmer than average, mostly because overnight temperatures throughout the month were around 5C higher than normal.

The Met Office long-range forecast also suggests February will be around two and half times more likely to be milder than average, when compared to normal.

You may be familiar with the weather proverb that March "comes in like a lion, out like a lamb".

This comes from the idea that the month typically starts stormy and ends on a quieter note. The phrase may be valid this year.

The stormier, wetter and milder than average weather we are expecting in February is likely to persist into March, which meteorologists consider to be the start of spring.

However, there are signs that the areas of low pressure - wet and windy weather - may be more confined to northern areas of the UK.

In the south, pressure may be higher which indicates more settled and therefore drier and calmer conditions.

This weather set-up would once again bring milder westerly winds from the Atlantic and so a reduced chance of colder spells.

You can keep up to date with our latest long-range forecast here.