The storming, stunning, thumping return of Trump, By Reuben Abati

President-elect Donald Trump

“As democracy is perfected, the office of the President represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day, the plain follies of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be occupied by a downright fool and complete narcissistic moron.” – HL Mencken, The Baltimore Evening Sun, 26 July, 1920.

I was an editorial writer intern on the Editorial Board of The Baltimore Sun and later the Los Angeles Times sometimes between 1996 and 1997 but I do not think that this gives me the right or the entitlement in reflecting on the recent US presidential election of 5 November, that the legendary HL Mencken, master of the English language, master columnist, has been proven right on the count of every claim above. Is Donald Trump, who has now stormed back as America’s 47th president awaiting inauguration on 20 January 2025, a fool and a moron? He was 45th president and he has now thumped his way back in a decisive manner – the greatest comeback in American history, which is much better than the feat recorded in 1893 by Grover Cleveland, the 22nd and 24th president of the United States.

In the lead up to the election, the polls from CNN to New York/Siena predicted that the race was too close to call. There were talks about the seven swing states that would determine the election. Donald Trump has now made history by winning in all the seven battleground states: Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pennsylvania – a landmark victory that gives him a resounding mandate to reshape America. Yet, this was/is a man who four years ago faced two impeachment trials. He was also accused of inciting an attack on the US Capitol in January 2021. He faced four criminal charges. In the course of the campaigns, two assassination attempts were made on his life. He was even branded a fascist. But he has now ended up as the people’s choice, winning both the popular vote and the electoral college vote, performing significantly better than he did in 2020.

The magnitude of his return speaks to “the inner soul of the people,” to use HL Mencken’s words; that is the American people who have now re-hired him. At 78, he will be the oldest leader to be sworn into office in the United States. He left office in 2021. He was accused of making the Republicans perform badly in the 2022 mid-term elections. But he is back – the first convicted felon to be elected as US president. He has not just won victory for himself; he has re-invented the Republican Party. The ideology of liberalism, touted much since the days of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, America’s longest serving president and a Democrat, suddenly became a byword for intolerance and rigidity as the Republican elite rose and Trump seized advantage of the confusion. The pollsters were wrong, dead wrong. This outcome in the United States puts a mark on the value of opinion polls in the United States and the place of public opinion in democracies. Even those members of the Republican Party who lined up behind Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, have now been shown that it is precisely the man they called “fascist”, vengeful and divisive that the average American has now voted for. This is about the American mind. There are perhaps more people in America like Trump than there are of the likes of Kamala Harris.

The questions have been asked: What does Trump 2.0, as the victory is otherwise called, mean for America, the world and specifically Africa? Americans have embraced their choice boldly and confidently. The National Coast Guard was called out in the event that there would be a repeat of the violence seen in 2021. The election was described as a possible repeat of the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, but nothing of sort happened. It wasn’t close to call and there was no violence. Trump had threatened to challenge the results if the election was adjudged unfair by him. He didn’t have to. Even President Biden says that the thing to do is to respect the wishes of the American people because it is what they want. Most Americans, who turned out en masse – the highest turn-out figure in 50 years, voted Trump because they believed the American economy would do better with him.

Despite the achievements of the Biden administration in creating jobs and bringing down inflation, the average American still thinks that Trump is a better economic manager. Americans hold a largely negative view about their country’s economy, and they are suspicious of the incumbents. Trump has promised to place “America First”. He is first and foremost American, so he would Make America Great Again (MAGA). In this regard, he is determined to impose his right-wing views about biology and medicare. He will drive away undocumented immigrants and make America safe for the citizens – those people from Haiti whom he says eat cats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio, and those from “shithole” countries. He will reduce dependency on America by the rest of the world by taking a second look at NATO, climate change and carbon emissions, the oil and gas industry and America’s relationship with the world. He will take aim at the Paris Climate Accord. He will ease restrictions on the oil industry’s emissions of methane. His win is not surprisingly a major win for the big money elite. All the three major US indexes have been doing well since it became clear that Trump and the Republicans were poised to win. Cryptocurrency has hit $80,000. Billionaire Elon Musk who supported Trump has been jubilating since. Trump promoted crypto during his campaign, backing a venture that had his sons involved. In his earlier Presidency, he dismissed crypto currency as a scam. He is forever changing his mind. And yet the people voted for him.

His provincialism, some say nativism or isolationist approach to global politics, has brought upon the world a season of great uncertainty and this has generated conversations and measures around the world about how countries and regions can best protect themselves. Less than a month ago, Russia hosted a meeting of the BRICS economies and invited new partners. America is the largest economy in the world and a superior power. With a man who prefers insularity to open engagements with the world, others are obliged to create a multi-polar world whereby America’s superiority can be diluted by the emergence of an alternative axis of power. Over the weekend, the same Russia, in Sochi, hosted Ministers of Foreign Affairs from Africa, where President Vladimir Putin pledged “total support” for African countries.

Yesterday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the UK and President Emmanuel Macron met after Armistice Day ceremonies to discuss free trade and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Trump has threatened to impose a blanket tariff of 20 per cent on imports as part of his America First agenda. This could see the UK economy losing as much as £215 billion next year and affect inflation and interest rates. For about a year, China has been fighting a corrosive deflationary trend with a combination of fiscal and economic stimulus. Trump’s emergence makes China’s situation even more serious. Russia and Ukraine, North Korea, South Korea, Iran, Taiwan are also at the epicentre of the emerging geo-politics. Trump has promised that he would solve the problem between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours. Does that mean he would force Ukraine to negotiate and cede territory? Trump’s politics has driven up the self-interest quotient in international politics. In Asia, the Middle East and the Pacific Rim, countries are preparing for the return of Trump. America being the most powerful country in the world explains the fascination with the American election.

Where does that leave African countries? I doubt if Africa is likely to be such a huge priority on Trump’s agenda. Immigration is likely to affect Africans, especially Nigerians very badly. In 2025, Trump has promised to end the African and Growth Opportunities Act (AGOA) which was introduced by the US in 2000 to assist African countries and promote economic relations between the US and the continent. American aid and security partnerships with African countries may also be reduced. Nigerians like to think that they are such an important part of geo-politics. In the lead up to the American election many of our compatriots back home here were very emotional about the US elections as the country was divided into two camps: Trump vs. Harris. Most of the people involved in this campaign had no right to vote in the American election. There was even no way their choices would affect America’s electoral process. In Northern Nigeria, the video was shown of persons waving the American flag and declaring support for Trump. Kamala Harris supporters were all over the local media pushing the narrative that a Trump Presidency would be bad for the world and that Trump is this or that. It appeared as if Trump’s supporters were more of the right-wing evangelical extraction, with the firm opinion that anybody who mentions the name of God was bound to win. Those who opposed Harris felt a woman no matter how gifted should not be allowed to lead men. With the possible exception of those Nigerians who have American citizenship and who chose to vote from overseas, most people simply talked. And Nigerians like to talk. And they have not stopped talking since the election was won and lost. No one should be surprised if before Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, some of his fans in Nigeria begin to organize owambe parties and buy aso ebi.

Whatever anyone says, Kamala Harris lost the election not because she was not good enough for the job, but because she joined the race rather late, only after President Biden, her boss, was pressured to step down in July. She deserves commendation for her determination, verve, and the energy with which she sold her narrative which re-energized the Democratic Party. Age, mental acuity and physical health are big issues in American elections. Biden, 81, looked frail and more fragile than Trump, 78. By the time Democrats brought a much younger Harris into the mix, she had a shorter time of preparation. She galvanized tremendous financial support, but she could have done better if she had been in the race much earlier. Biden has been blamed by the Democrats for being the main cause of her failure. Perhaps, he should have withdrawn from the race earlier. With all the support she had, Trump had a bigger war chest over time. American-style Presidential politics is an expensive deal, requiring a lot of money. Trump had his own resources. He got remarkable support from the likes of Elon Musk.

Be it in the US or Nigeria, money is the engine oil of politics. Those who are hoping that they could beat President Tinubu and the APC at the polls in 2027 had better begun now to stock-pile the funds, otherwise they might as well struggle in vain. There are other ways in which the American election reminds us of Nigeria. As soon as Trump was declared winner, his supporters, friends and party members trooped to his golf resort in Mar- a -Lago hanging around, trying to get Trump to notice them. He has made it clear that he would reward those who stood by him in the last three years and the few appointments that he has made so far clearly reflect that. Rogue and desperate guests have taken up hotel rooms and apartments in Palm Beach for the next three months, struggling to get themselves invited to the Golf Club.

Trump’s family members are also likely to feature prominently in the new administration as they did in his first term: his children and in-laws and of course his wife. I am thoroughly amused that some Nigerians are pushing the narrative that Trump has family connections with Nigeria. One of his daughters is said to be married to a Lebanese-Nigerian, from a prominent family and that Nigeria needs not worry about all those things Trump says. He has to be nice to his in-laws. It is only for President Tinubu to explore that advantage. How naïve! As in Nigeria all the pending court cases that Trump has in court are likely to disappear. And by the way, Trump is not complaining because he won. He has been congratulated by President Biden, and he has been invited to the White House on Thursday, this week, for lunch. When he lost in 2020, he did not congratulate Biden. He did not attend the inauguration. This is the man who is now back in the saddle as America’s President.

A Trump Presidency should be seen in the light of risks, opportunities and lessons. One stand-out lesson is how Trump is first and foremost an American. He wants to Make America Great Again. Similarly, those who want to lead Nigeria should seek to Make Nigeria Great Again. (MANGA). Let our leaders begin to talk about MANGA!

Reuben Abati, a former presidential spokesperson, writes from Lagos.