US election: 8 Reasons Donald Trump may beat Kamala Harris to emerge president

• Economic challenges, including inflation and recession fears, remain central, with former president Donald Trump promising a return to "American prosperity"
• Trump’s strong connection with the Republican base and his energised rallies could boost turnout in critical states
• In battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, Trump is targeting working-class voters focused on jobs and tax relief
• Vice President Kamala Harris faces an uphill task addressing voter fatigue with the current administration, as Trump pledges a change from the status quo

Didacus Malowa, a journalist at TUKO.co.ke, brings over three years of experience covering politics and current affairs in Kenya.

The 2024 US presidential election promises to be a high-stakes battle, with former president Donald Trump taking on Vice President Kamala Harris in what is shaping up to be a razor-thin campaign.

He has been impeached twice, but former US President Donald Trump has put up a fight in the 2024 polls. Photo: Saul Loeb.
Source: UGC

While Harris and the Democratic Party have a solid base, Trump's large following and unique campaign techniques pose a significant threat to their chances.

1. Economic Concerns Remain High on Voters' Minds

The US economy has struggled with inflation, high living costs, and recession fears in recent years.

Trump's campaign has focused on these economic pain points, claiming that his policies can restore economic stability.

Many voters recall Trump's pre-pandemic economic record, which featured low unemployment and rising incomes for some categories.

Trump has promised a return to 'American prosperity,' citing tax reduction, deregulation, and job growth as important components.

2. Trump’s strong base of support among Republicans

Trump's popularity among Republicans is still very strong, according to Newsweek.

His following has grown into a powerful voting bloc thanks to his ability to energise his supporters through rallies, social media, and ongoing interaction.

In states where voter turnout is crucial, this devoted following could provide the candidate a significant advantage.

Trump's dominance of the GOP base is evident from his triumph in 2016 and his impressive performance in 2020.

3. Growing support from swing voters

In the past, battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have been essential to winning presidential elections.

Trump's emphasis on these areas and their sizable working-class populations may prove crucial because these voters frequently place a high priority on issues like healthcare, tax relief, and manufacturing employment.

The former head of state has the power to influence these states once more, as seen by his ability to win over a large percentage in 2016 and 2020.

According to polls, Trump has been able to hold onto a core base of supporters in these regions, which might make Harris' electoral map difficult.

4. Trump's messaging on law and order

Voice of America reports that law and order is a major concern for many Americans, particularly in urban areas plagued by rising crime rates.

Trump's tough-on-crime approach resonates with voters who are concerned about safety and stability.

His campaign has focused on crime figures, positioning Trump as the man who will prioritise police budget and tougher penalties for criminal activities.

Harris, on the other hand, faces issues in blending a progressive approach to criminal justice reform with voter concerns about public safety.

5. Americans' concerns over immigration policies

Immigration remains a contentious subject, particularly in areas like Arizona and Texas, which are near the southern border.

Trump's severe immigration policies, especially the border wall plan, drew worldwide attention during his presidency.

His immigration policy is a central focus of his 2024 campaign, in which he advocates for more border security and tighter immigration regulations.

For some voters, particularly those in states witnessing demographic transitions, this issue is critical, providing Trump an advantage among voters who value immigration reform.

6. Effective use of social media and digital campaigns.

Trump's digital presence remains strong, with his dominance on social media platforms allowing him to avoid traditional media channels.

His use of social media to engage directly with supporters revolutionised modern politics.

Despite prohibitions on some sites, Trump has a large following on alternative channels and wields enormous internet power.

7. Appeal to rural and conservative voters

In areas like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin, where rural voters comprise a significant share of the electorate, Trump has continuously done well with them.

Rural populations who might feel ignored by national politicians find resonance in his "America First" platform and his dedication to agriculture and rural economic programs.

These votes might be difficult for Harris, who has a larger urban base of support, to win over.

Particularly in a close race, Trump's familiarity with rural America may be crucial to his ability to garner enough votes to tip the scales in his favour.

8. Potential voter fatigue with the establishment

After nearly four years of the Biden-Harris government, some voters may believe it's time for a change.

Inflation, perceived foreign policy shortcomings, and other issues may prompt voters to seek an alternative.

Trump's story of a return to "better days" under his administration appeals to individuals who are disgruntled with how the present administration has handled these issues.

Harris confronts the problem of defending the administration's record while also establishing her own policy ideas.

In a highly polarised political environment, voter dissatisfaction with the current quo can be a potent drive for change, which may assist Trump.

What are battleground states in 2024 polls

As reported earlier, the 2024 US presidential election will be a tight affair, with swing states playing a crucial role in determining the outcome.

Key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan hold significant electoral votes and are essential for both candidates.

Georgia, a Republican stronghold, has shifted demographics, making it competitive, while Arizona’s changing political landscape presents an opportunity for both.

North Carolina and Nevada are emerging as pivotal battlegrounds, with Harris narrowing the gap in North Carolina.

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Source: TUKO.co.ke