Why Edo governorship election is important to Tinubu, Atiku, Obi and other factors

• The Edo next governorship election will be held on Saturday, September 21, and five political facts about the state have emerged
• The race is said to be between the candidates of the APC, PDP and the Labour Party, who are Monday Okpebholo, Asue Ighodalo and Olumide Akpata
• However, one of the political facts about the poll is its impact on the presidential ambitions of Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and the second term bid of President Bola Tinubu

Nigerians living in Edo state will, on Saturday, September 21, troop out in their numbers to vote for the next governor of the state, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) schedule and guidelines.

The Saturday governorship election is between the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state, the All Progressives Congress (APC) with federal might, and the Labour Party, the third force.

Major political facts to know about Edo 2024 governorship election Photo Credit: @OlumideAkpata, @Aighodalo, @m_akpakomiza
Source: Twitter

However, as the election comes on Saturday, you should know some political facts. Below are some of the political facts:

Edo is politically diverse

The oil-rich state is one of the politically diverse states in Nigeria. While the PDP remained the ruling party in the state, the APC has two of the three senators, Adams Oshiomhole and Monday Okpebholo Edo North and Central. The Labour Party holds Edo South with Bernards Neda Imasuen as its senator.

On the other hand, the PDP has only one House of Representatives member out of the nine seats in the state. However, the PDP controls the state House of Assembly.

Ighodalo, Okpebholo, Akpata have limited political experience

Edo 2024: The limited experience of Akpata, Okpebholo and Akpata Photo Credit: @m_akpakomiza, @Aighodalo, @OlumideAkpata
Source: Twitter

Edo State's governorship election features three leading candidates with limited political experience as Ighodalo and Akpata are first-time contestants, while Okpebholo was elected senator last year, largely due to party dynamics.

Their inexperience amplifies the influence of their backers. Additionally, contentious primaries may impact party unity, while post-primary cohesion within parties will affect electoral outcomes. This sets the stage for a unique and potentially unpredictable election.

Edo 2024: Zonal and ethnic dynamics

The Saturday governorship election in Edo would be interesting beyond the influence of godfathers and special interest groups, zonal dynamics within the state will play a huge role in determining the outcome. Here's the thing: Edo Central, one of the three senatorial zones, has been unfairly left out of the governorship position since the Fourth Republic began.

The ethnic interest in the Edo governorship election Photo Credit: @Aighodalo, @m_akpakomiza
Source: Twitter

Edo South has had 16 years of governance (Lucky Igbinedion, 1999-2007, and Obaseki, 2016-2024; Edo North had 8 years (Oshiomhole, 2008-2016), and Edo Central had a brief, annulled stint (Professor Oserheinem Osunbor, May 29, 2007 - November 12, 2008).

There seems to be a strong elite consensus to address this imbalance in the current election cycle, as the PDP and APC are from Edo Central. Interestingly, Edo Central's last governor was Professor Ambrose Alli, who governed the larger Bendel State from 1979 to 1983 before it split into Delta and Edo states.

Ethnically, the Esans, predominant in Edo Central, are significant minorities in the state, similar to the Okuns in Kogi State and Idomas in Benue State.

Edo and the battle of godfathers

Edo 2024: The battle of godfatherism Photo Credit: @RadioNow953FM, @GovernorObaseki
Source: Twitter

The upcoming Edo State governorship election on Saturday will witness a proxy rematch between Governor Godwin Obaseki and former Governor Adams Oshiomhole. This will be their third electoral showdown since 2020, considering the fact that the candidates are politically inexperienced.

During the 2023 elections, Oshiomhole's APC secured two senatorial seats and six House of Representatives seats. On the other hand, Obaseki's PDP won 15 seats, APC secured 8, and the Labour Party took one.

The Saturday showdown is Ohiomhole's final chance to assert his dominance over Obaseki. On the other hand, the election is an opportunity for the governor to prove his strength as a political force.

Oshiomhole controls APC's state structure, remains influential in Edo North, and attracts federal support. Obaseki has state-level incumbency, and Edo South's significant voting population. Both leaders have significant weaknesses that may impact their parties' candidates.

Tinubu, Atiku, Obi’s interest

The Edo State governorship election is more than just a symbolic win for the three presidential candidates, President Bola Tinubu of the APC, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Labour Party’s Peter Obi in the 2023 election. It's a crucial indicator of their electoral strength and a chance to leverage momentum for future success.

Interests of Tinubu, Atiku and Obi in the Edo election Photo Credit: @officialABAT, @PeterObi, @atiku
Source: Twitter

For Obi and the Labour Party (LP), winning Edo State would validate their 2023 performance and expand their governance beyond Abia State. Regardless of his plans, a victory would boost Obi's reputation and relevance.

On Saturday, PDP and Atiku Abubakar face a must-win situation to maintain their foothold in Edo State. Losing would exacerbate their decline in the South-South and South East regions, where they traditionally held strong. Retaining Edo would keep PDP's governor tally at 13.

Meanwhile, the APC and President Tinubu seek to regain control of Edo, which they lost in 2020. A win would bring their governorship count to 21, nearing their 2015 peak of 22 states. For Tinubu, Edo holds personal significance, as it was a key location in his successful expansion of the Action Congress beyond the South West.

The governorship election, scheduled for September 21, 2024, will have far-reaching implications for Nigeria's political landscape. The outcome will influence the relative electoral strength of each party and impact their chances in future elections.

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Source: Legit.ng