3 weeks ago
4
You may have heard rumours of a rise in temperature as we head through early autumn.
Although there are hints of a slightly warmer than average September, there are no signs of any prolonged or extreme heat, and certainly no forecast of another record-breaking September heatwave like we saw last year.
The weather this week will continue to be fairly unsettled.
On Wednesday, some places will again see showers but they will be well scattered with warmer and brighter spells. A yellow rain warning has been issued by the Met Office for parts of southern England and south Wales for Wednesday night and Thursday.
Flash flooding could occur in places as up to 50-60mm of rain may fall in the heavier downpours, although not all areas will catch the showers.
Later in the week, it looks likely that the northern half of the UK will see higher pressure bringing a warmer, drier spell of weather. Further south, however, winds are likely to strengthen with further outbreaks of potentially heavy rain at times.
Temperatures are expected to creep up to a few degrees above the seasonal average as more humid air is blown our way from the near continent.
Into the second week of September, there are some indications from computer models that higher pressure is more likely, which would bring some spells of settled weather to the UK.
But cooler, wetter interludes are also possible at times, especially in the south. Temperature trends are for slightly warmer than average conditions but there are no signs of any prolonged or extreme heat.
From mid-month onwards, there are some signals from longer-range computer models that warmer conditions could develop as high pressure shifts into western Europe bring a warmer and calmer period of autumn weather to the UK.
Further ahead, there are no strong signals for a particular weather pattern to dominate, but the likelihood of a warmer and wetter than average autumn season is the most likely scenario.
Keep up with the latest long range forecast in our monthly outlook.
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