The geopolitical tug-of-war: Kagame and Tshisekedi in Eastern Congo, By Osmund Agbo

The decline in the relationship between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has its roots in the aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan genocide and has significantly impacted the conflict in eastern Congo. Following the genocide, Hutu militias, including the Interahamwe and ex-FAR (former Rwandan Armed Forces), fled into eastern Congo, then known as Zaire, where they regrouped and launched attacks on Rwanda. The government led by Paul Kagame viewed these groups as an existential security threat and sought to neutralise them by intervening in Congo’s internal conflicts.

Rwanda, a country in the Great Lakes region of East Africa, shares striking similarities with the state of Israel. Both nations emerged from horrific pasts marked by genocides that claimed the lives of millions of men, women, and children, rising to become influential regional — if not global — players.

Like Israel’s rise after the Holocaust, Rwanda’s resurgence from the 1994 genocide is a testament to strong leadership, reconciliation, and economic reform. Under President Paul Kagame, the nation prioritised unity, education, healthcare, and infrastructure, while fostering a business-friendly environment and fighting corruption.

Through initiatives like Vision 2020, Rwanda became a hub for innovation and sustainability, transforming Kigali into one of Africa’s cleanest and safest cities. This swift transformation, with an emphasis on gender equality and development, has made the country a global success story, admired for its stability and progress.

The ongoing proxy conflict between Rwanda and its neighbour, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), mirrors the geopolitical dynamics often seen in the Middle East. Like the Jewish state, which holds significant influence, despite being smaller than its regional neighbours, Rwanda — though just a fraction of the size of the DRC — has exerted a disproportionately large impact on its much larger neighbour.

Rwandan forces have been accused of multiple invasions and even influencing regime changes within the DRC, highlighting the East African nation’s aggressive stance in the region. Like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has faced widespread criticism for his country’s actions in Gaza and neighbouring territories, Rwandan President, Paul Kagame’s interventions in the DRC, have drawn international condemnation for his role in further destabilising an already volatile region.

Eastern Congo, renowned for its stunning landscapes of smoking volcanoes, serene lakes bordered by rolling hills, and rainforests teeming with biodiversity, is often regarded as one of the most beautiful places on earth. This region is home to over 16 million of the DRC’s estimated 109 million residents, most of who are farmers living in small villages. Unfortunately, with more than 120 rebel groups operating in eastern Congo alone, these communities have endured decades of conflict, resulting in millions being killed, raped, or forcibly displaced into camps, due to ongoing violence.

Congo’s President Felix Tshisekedi recently addressed the UN General Assembly, asserting that “Rwanda seeks to occupy our land, rich in gold, coltan, and cobalt, for their own exploitation and profit. This is an economic war for the battle of resources, fought by Rwanda’s terrorist gangs.” He accused President Kagame of supporting the M23 rebel group, which has exacerbated an unprecedented humanitarian crisis that has displaced over seven million people.

During the First Congo War (1996-1997), Rwanda allied with Uganda and Congolese rebel leader, Laurent-Désiré Kabila, to overthrow Mobutu Sese Seko, who had provided sanctuary to Hutu militias. This intervention marked the beginning of Rwanda’s direct involvement in Congo’s affairs and set the stage for a complex and deteriorating relationship between the two nations.

Paul Kagame, the president of Rwanda, emerged as a formidable leader after playing a decisive role in ending the 1994 Rwandan genocide. As the head of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), Kagame led the effort to overthrow the genocidal regime and set Rwanda on a path of rapid recovery and development. Under his leadership, Rwanda became a model of progress in Africa.

Despite his domestic success, however, Kagame’s reputation as a reformer has been overshadowed by accusations of sponsoring rebel groups, such as the M23 in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which have destabilised its neighbour. These actions reflect a troubling pattern of regional interference that undermines his achievements at home.

Kagame’s actions, critics say, are reminiscent of Libya’s former leader, Muammar Gaddafi, who was both a transformational figure domestically and a destabilising force in Africa. Gaddafi, praised for turning Libya into one of the continent’s most prosperous nations through its vast oil wealth, free healthcare, education, and housing programmes, also engaged in a series of proxy wars that fueled conflicts across Africa.

Gaddafi sponsored a range of rebel movements, including Charles Taylor’s National Patriotic Front of Liberia, which played a major role in the Liberian Civil War, and supported the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) in Sierra Leone, notorious for its brutal tactics. He also provided support to rebel groups in Chad, including Hissène Habré’s insurgency, and armed the Tuareg rebellions in Mali and Niger.

These interventions, driven by Gaddafi’s desire to expand Libya’s influence and challenge Western dominance in Africa, significantly contributed to regional instability. Both Kagame and Gaddafi exemplify the complex duality of African leadership — achieving notable progress internally, while also engaging in destabilising actions that fuel conflicts beyond their borders. But is it truly fair to compare Kagame, a leader fighting an existential war to protect his people, to Gaddafi, who was widely regarded as a tyrant, even by his own people, yet is now being recast as a saint through the lens of revisionist history?

During the First Congo War (1996-1997), Rwanda allied with Uganda and Congolese rebel leader, Laurent-Désiré Kabila, to overthrow Mobutu Sese Seko, who had provided sanctuary to Hutu militias. This intervention marked the beginning of Rwanda’s direct involvement in Congo’s affairs and set the stage for a complex and deteriorating relationship between the two nations.

The decline in the relationship between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has its roots in the aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan genocide and has significantly impacted the conflict in eastern Congo. Following the genocide, Hutu militias, including the Interahamwe and ex-FAR (former Rwandan Armed Forces), fled into eastern Congo, then known as Zaire, where they regrouped and launched attacks on Rwanda. The government led by Paul Kagame viewed these groups as an existential security threat and sought to neutralise them by intervening in Congo’s internal conflicts.

In this perilous convergence of local, regional, and global interests, a volatile cauldron of instability relentlessly churns, rendering peace in eastern Congo not merely elusive, but systematically sabotaged. As long as these competing forces profit from chaos, the hope for lasting peace remains not just a distant dream, but a dangerously fragile illusion.

The growing animosity between the two nations also led the Congolese government to embrace the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a group formed by Hutu fighters, including some who participated in the Rwandan genocide. For the Congolese government, the FDLR serves as a counterbalance to Rwanda-backed rebel groups such as the Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD) and later the M23, which operate in eastern Congo.

The FDLR has become a proxy force for Kinshasa, helping to exert control over the mineral-rich eastern region and push back Rwandan influence. This alliance deepens the hostility between the two neighbours and intensifies the conflict in eastern Congo, as each side continues to support armed groups that fuel violence and instability.

The situation is further complicated by the weak state control in the DRC, which makes it difficult for the government to effectively manage the multitude of armed groups operating in the east. Despite international efforts to disarm and repatriate the FDLR fighters, these attempts largely failed, forcing the Congolese government to tolerate and, at times, support the FDLR as a necessary evil in its broader struggle against Rwanda-backed forces. The enduring presence of the FDLR and other militias has not only prolonged the conflict but also perpetuated the cycle of violence, exploitation, and regional destabilisation, illustrating the deep-seated enmity and mistrust that continues to plague the relationship between Rwanda and Congo.

Despite the efforts of many stakeholders to broker peace, the Congo-Rwandan conflict persists due to a complex web of competing interests involving armed groups, regional powers, weak governance, and economic exploitation. Armed groups like the FDLR, M23, and various local militias subsist in destabilising eastern Congo, driven by ethnic tensions, political agendas, and the profits from illegal mining. These groups are often backed by regional powers, with Rwanda supporting some rebel factions, while the DRC has historically allied with anti-Rwandan militias.

Foreign actors, including China, also play a significant role in prolonging the conflict due to their economic interests in Congo’s vast mineral resources. China, as a major investor in Congo’s mining sector, has often prioritised access to resources over peace, providing financial support to Congolese leaders and companies that exploit the instability for profit.

In this perilous convergence of local, regional, and global interests, a volatile cauldron of instability relentlessly churns, rendering peace in eastern Congo not merely elusive, but systematically sabotaged. As long as these competing forces profit from chaos, the hope for lasting peace remains not just a distant dream, but a dangerously fragile illusion.

Osmund Agbo is a US-based medical doctor and author. His works include Black Grit, White Knuckles: The Philosophy of Black Renaissance and a fiction work titled The Velvet Court: Courtesan Chronicles. His latest works, Pray, Let the Shaman Die and Ma’am, I Do Not Come to You for Love, have just been released.