After Assad’s Fall: Chaos Looms

The toppling of statues in Syria’s largest cities marks more than the end of Bashar Assad’s regime; it signals the beginning of a new chapter fraught with uncertainty. The images of jubilant crowds celebrating the sudden downfall of 24 years of Assad family rule evoke memories of similar moments in history, such as the removal of Saddam Hussein’s statue in Baghdad in 2003. But while the collapse of Assad’s regime has been met with widespread cheer, Syria’s future remains anything but secure. Far from ushering in peace and stability, the aftermath of Assad’s ouster is likely to bring new challenges, as deep divisions, questionable leadership, and regional power struggles complicate the country’s path forward.

The End of the Assad Dynasty

For over four decades, the Assad family ruled Syria with an iron fist. Hafez Assad, who seized power in a military coup in 1970, ensured that Syria would be his personal fiefdom. His regime was marked by brutal repression, systemic corruption, and the enshrinement of his image throughout the country. Despite significant economic decline, including a drop in per capita income from $1,470 in 1980 to $990 in 1990, Hafez’s control was maintained through a combination of fear, patronage, and the strategic distribution of state resources.

When Hafez died in 2000, his son Bashar assumed power at just 34 years old, bypassing Syria’s constitutional requirement that the president be at least 40. Bashar’s regime, initially seen as a potential for reform, quickly descended into stagnation. While his father had managed to maintain a delicate balance between various factions, Bashar failed to adapt to the changing political, economic, and social landscape. His reliance on Russian and Iranian support, especially after the civil war erupted in 2011, was critical in keeping his regime afloat.

However, Assad’s power was already weakening. The Syrian economy continued to deteriorate, with per capita income plummeting from $1,500 in 2011 to $745 by 2021. The prolonged civil war decimated the country, and without the backing of foreign powers, Bashar’s rule would likely have collapsed long ago. The ultimate fall of his regime, though swift and dramatic, was inevitable, marking the end of an era of Assad family dominance.

Al-Golani’s Challenge

The rebellion that led to Assad’s downfall was spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group with a controversial history. Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has long been associated with extremist movements. Al-Golani first rose to prominence as a member of al-Qaeda, participating in the fight against U.S. forces in Iraq. He later founded al-Nusra Front, an affiliate of al-Qaeda, before rebranding his faction as HTS in 2016.

Despite his efforts to distance himself from transnational jihadism, al-Golani’s past continues to haunt him. His leadership has been marked by authoritarianism, with HTS exercising tight control over Idlib, Syria’s last major opposition-held area. While al-Golani claims to be focusing on Syria’s future rather than global jihad, his group’s behavior raises doubts. HTS has marginalized other opposition factions and consolidated power in Idlib, making it difficult for Syrians to view al-Golani as a leader capable of uniting the country.

Moreover, the Syrian population remains deeply skeptical of al-Golani. While most Syrians are Muslims, they have little interest in religious dogma or extremist ideologies. Many view al-Golani’s brand of Islamism as a further imposition on their already war-weary lives. His promises of a new, unified Syria are difficult to take seriously when his group’s leadership has been marked by authoritarianism, exclusion, and violence.

A Fractured Society

Syria’s internal divisions are both deep and historic, exacerbated by decades of repression under the Assad family. The country is home to a mosaic of ethnic and religious groups, including Sunni Arabs, Alawites, Kurds, Druze, and Christians. These groups, while mostly Muslim, have little in common beyond their faith, and their historical grievances and competing visions for Syria’s future have fueled decades of division.

The 2011 uprising, which initially called for democratic reforms, quickly devolved into a multi-sided civil war, with sectarian and ethnic tensions coming to the forefront. The rebellion fractured into multiple factions, each pursuing its own agenda. Rebel groups in Daraa, the birthplace of the uprising, have operated independently of other opposition factions. In Sweida, a Druze-majority province, armed groups have fought for their own interests. Even the Kurdish region in the north has carved out an autonomous zone, further complicating any efforts to forge national unity.

The Assad regime capitalized on these divisions, using sectarianism to solidify its control. Now, with the regime’s fall, the political landscape remains fractured. Al-Golani, despite his claims of unity, has failed to bridge these divides. His authoritarian rule in Idlib has alienated other opposition groups, both secular and religious, and made reconciliation increasingly unlikely.

In such a fragmented environment, any attempt to rebuild Syria’s institutions will face immense challenges. Reconciliation will be difficult, as Syrians are deeply divided along ethnic, religious, and political lines.

Regional Implications

Syria’s collapse has immediate and far-reaching implications for the broader Middle East. Neighboring countries, each with its own interests, are already positioning themselves to take advantage of the power vacuum left by Assad’s fall. Israel, for example, moved quickly to capture the Syrian side of Mount Hermon, signaling its desire to secure its position in the region. Israeli airstrikes have also targeted military sites in Damascus, further destabilizing Syria’s already fragile political situation.

Turkey, too, has resumed airstrikes on Kurdish positions in northern Syria, reviving its longstanding conflict with Kurdish militias seeking autonomy. Meanwhile, Jordan, which shares a long border with Syria, is bracing for the potential spillover of violence. The Jordanian government has been concerned about the smuggling of Captagon, an illicit drug, from Syria for years, and fears that the collapse of Assad’s regime could reignite this trade. In addition, Jordan worries about the possibility of sectarian violence spilling over its border, further destabilizing the region.

The broader Arab world is also watching the developments in Syria closely. The fall of Assad’s regime could inspire militant groups in other countries. In Lebanon, Hezbollah, a key ally of Assad, may face renewed pressure from opposition factions. In Iraq, the overthrow of Assad could embolden anti-government protesters, especially those who oppose Iranian influence. Even Egypt, where President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has cracked down on Islamist movements, could see renewed unrest as a result of the shift in Syria’s political landscape.

The Road Ahead

The fall of Bashar Assad’s regime marks a new chapter for Syria, but one filled with uncertainty. While many see the end of the Assad dynasty as a victory, the situation in Syria remains dire. Al-Golani and HTS, despite their role in removing Assad from power, are not viewed as legitimate leaders by most Syrians. The country remains deeply divided, with no clear path forward.

The road to recovery will be long and fraught with challenges. Syria’s fractured society, coupled with the ambitions of regional powers, will make the task of rebuilding the country even more difficult. Without a comprehensive political solution, the prospects for stability in Syria are slim. The fall of Assad is just the beginning, and the real work of rebuilding Syria, if it is even possible, has yet to begin.